I have a chum on IRC who bet on some matches. Most of the ones he bet>on are turning out to be draws, instead of the wins or losses he>tipped. 7 draws in fact, to date.>

Now I don't know the first thing about betting (and I'm not a>Statistician like so many on RSS, but is there a statistical>computa­tion about draws versus wins-losses?>

I'm not sure I put that correctly though. I'm just curious in a way>people are sometimes curious about dice rolls, etc. ­

On Wed, 20 Apr 2005 16:39:46 -0400, Victoria Barrett><vbarrett@t­he-beach.net> wrote:

In the EPL this season I think 40% of games (96/335) have been drawn.>That's a lot more than usual isn't it? I remember a few years ago it>was 25%.

"Now I don't know the first thing about betting (and I'm not a>Statistician like so many on RSS, but is there a statistical>computa­tion about draws versus wins-losses?"

In the World Cup and European Championship, I've heard that the betting>public tends to overbet favorites and big-name teams (like Argentina,>England,­ Germany, and Italy even at times when their current teams>aren't any good), and underbet draws and underdogs (especially strong>lesser-known­ teams from Africa and Eastern Europe).

Now I don't know the first thing about betting (and I'm not a> Statistician like so many on RSS, but is there a statistical> computation about draws versus wins-losses?

1929-2004: 31.4%>1995-2004: 28.7%>

English First Division/Premier League:>

1929-1999: 25.5 %>1995-1999: 28.3 %>

The percentage draws is very strongly correlated with the goal per game>average. Obviously, the higher the number of goals, the lower the>probability that the match ends in a draw. That's why there's such a large>gap in the historical average between Italy and England (England used to>have a much higher gpg average), but it has nearly completely vanished>recently.