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GYXU > F1, Indy, Nascar, Rally > RPG - 'dega WW 1 May 2005 21:23:23

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RPG - 'dega WW

WildWeasel 1 May 2005 03:50:07
 Oh heck, how do you predict this one??? I think MXM and his friend Mr. Random
will win (this is not one, but should be, maybe).

1. An even numbered car will win.
Result:

2. The car taking the white flag will not win.
Result:

3. Chevy will have at least 3 of the top 5 spots.
Result:

4. The first 3 places will be from the points top 10.
Result:

5. HMS will have more cars in the top 10 than RR.
Result:


Bonus: The race will go green the whole race and Chevy will take the top 10
places.



Add comment
Somebody 1 May 2005 20:41:02 permanent link ]
 
"WildWeasel" <wweasel_24@HooYah.­com> wrote in message
news:XrWcnTQqJJZ_he­nfUSdV9g@ptd.net...>­ Oh heck, how do you predict this one??? I think MXM and his friend Mr.
Random> will win (this is not one, but should be, maybe).

You could have my problem -- I had to make TEN picks this week to make up
for Phoenix. Yuck.

Anyway I'm going to pick apart a few of your picks unfortunately -- you led
for a long time so you still have a target on ya. :-)­
1. An even numbered car will win.> Result:

Gimmie alert: You've started with something that's about 50/50 (even vs
odd) and of those two groups, you picked the group that includes 13 of the
top 15 drivers including the winners of 11 of the last 15 Plate Races. It's
a clear Gimmie my friend.
2. The car taking the white flag will not win.> Result:

I like this one. No stats on it either way, but at most tracks this year,
that's not been the case. Plate tracks... used to be that 1st at the white
flag was the place you *least* wanted to be. These days, who knows.
3. Chevy will have at least 3 of the top 5 spots.> Result:

Gimmie Alert: Your prediction has occured exactly 80% of the time over the
last 5 plate races.

Some numbers:

2005 Daytona 500: Chevy top 4 spots, 6 of top 7.
2004 Pepsi 400: Chevy top 3 spots, 8 of top 10.
2004 Daytona 500: Chevy top 3 spots, 6 of top 8.
2004 EA Sports 500: Chevy topp 2 and 7 of 11 spots.
2004 Aaron's 499: Chevy top 5 spots.

So, over the last 5 plate races:
Chevy has had the top 3 spots 4 out of 5 times (80% frequency).
Chevy has even had the top 4 spots 4 out of 5 times (80% frequency)
Top 10: Chevy has 30 of 50 spots (60%)
Top 5: Chevy has 19 of 25 spots (76%)
Top 3: Chevy has 14 of 15 spots (93%)

Any way you look at it, what you predict is far more likely than not to
happen, I'd say.
4. The first 3 places will be from the points top 10.> Result:

I thought this one was a gimmie too. Did the research, it's not.
Shockingly enough, the top 3 places do *not* go to the top 10 in points more
often than not, as of late. Good pick!


-Russ.

Add comment
WildWeasel 1 May 2005 21:23:23 permanent link ]
 
"Somebody" wrote ...>
"WildWeasel" wrote ...>> Oh heck, how do you predict this one??? I think MXM and his friend Mr.> Random>> will win (this is not one, but should be, maybe).>
You could have my problem -- I had to make TEN picks this week to make up> for Phoenix. Yuck.

<g>
Anyway I'm going to pick apart a few of your picks unfortunately -- you led> for a long time so you still have a target on ya. :-)­>
1. An even numbered car will win.>> Result:>
Gimmie alert: You've started with something that's about 50/50 (even vs> odd) and of those two groups, you picked the group that includes 13 of the> top 15 drivers including the winners of 11 of the last 15 Plate Races. It's> a clear Gimmie my friend.

Making 10 picks makes you *miserable*, huh Russ! Not doing the research you did
when I made the picks, I didn't know that. But with your admission that "the
top 3 places do *not* go to the top 10 in points" I'd say that 13 of the top 15
aren't necessarily sitting in a good spot. Even so, to make you feel better
after coming up with 10, I'll change it to:

1. An even numbered car, evenly divisible by 3, will win. (6, 12, 18, 24, 36,
42, .... Eliminates the 2, 4, 8, 10, 16, 20, 22, 38, ...)
Result:

2. The car taking the white flag will not win.>> Result:>
I like this one. No stats on it either way, but at most tracks this year,> that's not been the case. Plate tracks... used to be that 1st at the white> flag was the place you *least* wanted to be. These days, who knows.>
3. Chevy will have at least 3 of the top 5 spots.>> Result:>
Gimmie Alert: Your prediction has occured exactly 80% of the time over the> last 5 plate races.>
Some numbers:>
2005 Daytona 500: Chevy top 4 spots, 6 of top 7.> 2004 Pepsi 400: Chevy top 3 spots, 8 of top 10.> 2004 Daytona 500: Chevy top 3 spots, 6 of top 8.> 2004 EA Sports 500: Chevy topp 2 and 7 of 11 spots.> 2004 Aaron's 499: Chevy top 5 spots.>
So, over the last 5 plate races:> Chevy has had the top 3 spots 4 out of 5 times (80% frequency).> Chevy has even had the top 4 spots 4 out of 5 times (80% frequency)> Top 10: Chevy has 30 of 50 spots (60%)> Top 5: Chevy has 19 of 25 spots (76%)> Top 3: Chevy has 14 of 15 spots (93%)>
Any way you look at it, what you predict is far more likely than not to> happen, I'd say.

OK, although I *am* trying to get it right ... How about:

3. Chevy will have exactly 3 of the top 5 spots with one Ford and one Dodge in
the T5.
Result:
4. The first 3 places will be from the points top 10.>> Result:>
I thought this one was a gimmie too. Did the research, it's not.> Shockingly enough, the top 3 places do *not* go to the top 10 in points more> often than not, as of late. Good pick!

*This* is the one I though would likely get flagged! The good news is that no
animals were harmed during my RPG pick research as I clearly did none. So, I
have amended to:


1a. An even numbered car, evenly divisible by 3, will win. (6, 12, 18, 24, 36,
42, .... Eliminates the 2, 4, 8, 10, 16, 20, 22, 38, ...)
Result:

2. The car taking the white flag will not win.
Result:

3a. Chevy will have exactly 3 of the top 5 spots with one Ford and one Dodge in
the T5.
Result:

4. The first 3 places will be from the points top 10.
Result:

5. HMS (5, 24, 25, 48) will have more cars in the top 10 than RR (97, 6, 99,
17, 16).
Result:


Bonus: The race will go green the whole race and Chevy will take the top 10
places.




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GYXU > F1, Indy, Nascar, Rally > RPG - 'dega WW 1 May 2005 21:23:23

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