Re: RPG - Atlanta

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Re: RPG - Atlanta - Julia
John McCoy 20 March 2005 03:29:51
	Julia <julia.dmbangel2004@gmail.com> wrote in news:2005031908123916807%juliadmbangel2004@gmailcom: 4. There will be more gainers than losers in the top 10. I'm not sure I understand this one... John
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Julia 20 March 2005 03:58:59 [ permanent link ]
	On 2005-03-19 12:29:51 -0500, John McCoy <igopogo@ix.netcom.com> said: Julia <julia.dmbangel2004@gmail.com> wrote in > news:2005031908123916807%juliadmbangel2004@gmailcom:> 4. There will be more gainers than losers in the top 10.> I'm not sure I understand this one...> John okay.... lemme rephrase it ~ there will be more drivers in the top ten that move up a spot or two (or more) in the points than there will be drivers that lose positions. Here is an example from last week: Busch and Johnson went into the race in first and second respectively ~ they stayed that way, but the rest of the top 10 changed. Of the rest of the top ten, Biffle, Gordon, Stewart, Wallace, Newman and Harvick all gained positions in the points. Edwards and Martin lost position in the points. -- .."your head can't rule your heart ~ a feeling is so much stronger than a thought"... $1 to Bono (U2) from "Vertigo"
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WildWeasel 20 March 2005 04:10:07 [ permanent link ]
	"Julia" wrote ...> John McCoy said:>> "Julia" wrote ...>> 4. There will be more gainers than losers in the top 10.>> I'm not sure I understand this one...>> John> okay.... lemme rephrase it ~ there will be more drivers in the top ten that > move up a spot or two (or more) in the points than there will be drivers that > lose positions.> Here is an example from last week: Busch and Johnson went into the race in > first and second respectively ~ they stayed that way, but the rest of the top > 10 changed. Of the rest of the top ten, Biffle, Gordon, Stewart, Wallace, > Newman and Harvick all gained positions in the points. Edwards and Martin > lost position in the points.> so you're using pre-race top 10 or post-race top 10? (just to make sure)
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Somebody 20 March 2005 16:31:00 [ permanent link ]
	"Julia" <julia.dmbangel2004@gmail.com> wrote in message news:2005031918584775249%juliadmbangel2004@gmailcom...> On 2005-03-19 12:29:51 -0500, John McCoy <igopogo@ix.netcom.com> said:> Julia <julia.dmbangel2004@gmail.com> wrote in> > news:2005031908123916807%juliadmbangel2004@gmailcom:> > 4. There will be more gainers than losers in the top 10.> > I'm not sure I understand this one...> > John> okay.... lemme rephrase it ~ there will be more drivers in the top ten> that move up a spot or two (or more) in the points than there will be> drivers that lose positions.> In other words, someone in the top 10 will drop a number of spots at once. The opposite, "there will be more losers than gainers in the top 10" occurs when someone new breaks into the top 10. I'm inclined to think that your prediction is true more often than not -- not having researched it yet mind you. -Russ.
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Julia 20 March 2005 18:05:33 [ permanent link ]
	On 2005-03-20 01:31:00 -0500, "Somebody" <somebody@nospam.russdoucet.com> said: "Julia" <julia.dmbangel2004@gmail.com> wrote in message> news:2005031918584775249%juliadmbangel2004@gmailcom...>> On 2005-03-19 12:29:51 -0500, John McCoy <igopogo@ix.netcom.com> said:>> Julia <julia.dmbangel2004@gmail.com> wrote in>>> news:2005031908123916807%juliadmbangel2004@gmailcom:>>> 4. There will be more gainers than losers in the top 10.>>> I'm not sure I understand this one...>>> John>> okay.... lemme rephrase it ~ there will be more drivers in the top ten>> that move up a spot or two (or more) in the points than there will be>> drivers that lose positions.>> In other words, someone in the top 10 will drop a number of spots at once.> The opposite, "there will be more losers than gainers in the top 10" occurs> when someone new breaks into the top 10.> I'm inclined to think that your prediction is true more often than not > -- not having researched it yet mind you.> -Russ. I'm not just referring to moving in and out of the top ten, I'm talking about movement within the top ten (eg. moving from 1st to 3rd, moving from 7th to 4th, etc...). I'm not sure whether the prediction is true more often than not as I haven't really paid that much attention, but I also don't see a reason why it would necessarily be stacked in that direction ~ of course if there is a statistical reason, I think Cru would let us know. To answer WW, I will use the top ten as it is after the race, but I will also include anyone who drops out of the top 10 as a "loser" also (in effort to avoid giving gainers more weight than losers). -- .."your head can't rule your heart ~ a feeling is so much stronger than a thought"... $1 to Bono (U2) from "Vertigo"
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Crusader 20 March 2005 19:42:27 [ permanent link ]
	"Julia" <julia.dmbangel2004@gmail.com> wrote in message news:2005032009045716807%juliadmbangel2004@gmailcom...> On 2005-03-20 01:31:00 -0500, "Somebody" <somebody@nospam.russdoucet.com> said:> "Julia" <julia.dmbangel2004@gmail.com> wrote in message> > news:2005031918584775249%juliadmbangel2004@gmailcom...> >> On 2005-03-19 12:29:51 -0500, John McCoy <igopogo@ix.netcom.com> said:> >> Julia <julia.dmbangel2004@gmail.com> wrote in> >>> news:2005031908123916807%juliadmbangel2004@gmailcom:> >>> 4. There will be more gainers than losers in the top 10.> >>> I'm not sure I understand this one...> >>> John> >> okay.... lemme rephrase it ~ there will be more drivers in the top ten> >> that move up a spot or two (or more) in the points than there will be> >> drivers that lose positions.> >> In other words, someone in the top 10 will drop a number of spots at once.> > The opposite, "there will be more losers than gainers in the top 10" occurs> > when someone new breaks into the top 10.> > I'm inclined to think that your prediction is true more often than not> > -- not having researched it yet mind you.> > -Russ.> I'm not just referring to moving in and out of the top ten, I'm talking> about movement within the top ten (eg. moving from 1st to 3rd, moving> from 7th to 4th, etc...). I'm not sure whether the prediction is true> more often than not as I haven't really paid that much attention, but I> also don't see a reason why it would necessarily be stacked in that> direction ~ of course if there is a statistical reason, I think Cru> would let us know.> To answer WW, I will use the top ten as it is after the race, but I> will also include anyone who drops out of the top 10 as a "loser" also> (in effort to avoid giving gainers more weight than losers).> -- > .."your head can't rule your heart ~ a feeling is so much stronger> than a thought"... $1 to Bono (U2) from "Vertigo"> Girl, i had a feeling my name would be brought up. I'm inclined to agree with Russ' position for this reason: We are getting closer to the 7th race at TX & as u may recall one can predict with over 80% accuracy who will be 10 drivers that make The Chase. It used to be who will finish in the final Top 10 in points--actually that's still true, ain't it? I have done this study using results since the '98 season. No, i ain't lookin yore subject up. Maybe Barry Posner would? Cru-no time since March Madness has set in.
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Julia 20 March 2005 21:11:17 [ permanent link ]
	On 2005-03-20 04:42:27 -0500, "Crusader" <cru32@comcast.net> said: "Julia" <julia.dmbangel2004@gmail.com> wrote in message> news:2005032009045716807%juliadmbangel2004@gmailcom...>> On 2005-03-20 01:31:00 -0500, "Somebody" <somebody@nospam.russdoucet.com> said:>> "Julia" <julia.dmbangel2004@gmail.com> wrote in message>>> news:2005031918584775249%juliadmbangel2004@gmailcom...>>>> On 2005-03-19 12:29:51 -0500, John McCoy <igopogo@ix.netcom.com> said:>>>> Julia <julia.dmbangel2004@gmail.com> wrote in>>>>> news:2005031908123916807%juliadmbangel2004@gmailcom:>>>>> 4. There will be more gainers than losers in the top 10.>>>>> I'm not sure I understand this one...>>>>> John>>>> okay.... lemme rephrase it ~ there will be more drivers in the top ten>>>> that move up a spot or two (or more) in the points than there will be>>>> drivers that lose positions.>>>> In other words, someone in the top 10 will drop a number of spots at once.>>> The opposite, "there will be more losers than gainers in the top 10" occurs>>> when someone new breaks into the top 10.>>> I'm inclined to think that your prediction is true more often than not>>> -- not having researched it yet mind you.>>> -Russ.>> I'm not just referring to moving in and out of the top ten, I'm talking>> about movement within the top ten (eg. moving from 1st to 3rd, moving>> from 7th to 4th, etc...). I'm not sure whether the prediction is true>> more often than not as I haven't really paid that much attention, but I>> also don't see a reason why it would necessarily be stacked in that>> direction ~ of course if there is a statistical reason, I think Cru>> would let us know.>> To answer WW, I will use the top ten as it is after the race, but I>> will also include anyone who drops out of the top 10 as a "loser" also>> (in effort to avoid giving gainers more weight than losers).>> -->> .."your head can't rule your heart ~ a feeling is so much stronger>> than a thought"... $1 to Bono (U2) from "Vertigo">> Girl, i had a feeling my name would be brought up.> I'm inclined to agree with Russ' position for this reason:> We are getting closer to the 7th race at TX & as u may recall> one can predict with over 80% accuracy who will be 10 drivers> that make The Chase. It used to be who will finish in the final> Top 10 in points--actually that's still true, ain't it?> I have done this study using results since the '98 season.> No, i ain't lookin yore subject up. Maybe Barry Posner would?> Cru-no time since March Madness has set in. of course your name would be brought up ~ I know where my bread is buttered, especially when it comes to stats. But I don't wanna gimme here ~ even if it is unintentional. So I'll amend my predictions. -- .."your head can't rule your heart ~ a feeling is so much stronger than a thought"... $1 to Bono (U2) from "Vertigo"
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Martin X. Moleski 21 March 2005 04:20:08 [ permanent link ]
	On Sun, 20 Mar 2005 09:42:27 CST, "Crusader" <cru32@comcast.net> wrote: ... We are getting closer to the 7th race at TX & as u may recall>one can predict with over 80% accuracy who will be 10 drivers>that make The Chase. It used to be who will finish in the final>Top 10 in points--actually that's still true, ain't it? ... I think it's worse than it used to be. The 7th-race mark you studied before 2004 was out of 32 to 36 races, wasn't it? Now it's 7th out of 26. Less time is left for reshuffling the top 10 than in pre-Chase seasons. Marty
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Somebody 21 March 2005 10:27:08 [ permanent link ]
	"Julia" <julia.dmbangel2004@gmail.com> wrote in message news:2005032009045716807%juliadmbangel2004@gmailcom...> On 2005-03-20 01:31:00 -0500, "Somebody" <somebody@nospam.russdoucet.com> said:> "Julia" <julia.dmbangel2004@gmail.com> wrote in message> > news:2005031918584775249%juliadmbangel2004@gmailcom...> >> On 2005-03-19 12:29:51 -0500, John McCoy <igopogo@ix.netcom.com> said:> >> Julia <julia.dmbangel2004@gmail.com> wrote in> >>> news:2005031908123916807%juliadmbangel2004@gmailcom:> >>> 4. There will be more gainers than losers in the top 10.> >>> I'm not sure I understand this one...> >>> John> >> okay.... lemme rephrase it ~ there will be more drivers in the top ten> >> that move up a spot or two (or more) in the points than there will be> >> drivers that lose positions.> >> In other words, someone in the top 10 will drop a number of spots at once.> > The opposite, "there will be more losers than gainers in the top 10" occurs> > when someone new breaks into the top 10.> > I'm inclined to think that your prediction is true more often than not> > -- not having researched it yet mind you.> > -Russ.> I'm not just referring to moving in and out of the top ten, I'm talking> about movement within the top ten (eg. moving from 1st to 3rd, moving> from 7th to 4th, etc...). I'm not sure whether the prediction is true> more often than not as I haven't really paid that much attention, but I> also don't see a reason why it would necessarily be stacked in that> direction ~ of course if there is a statistical reason, I think Cru> would let us know. Well if you really think about it, your prediction is rather tightly constrained. In order for there to be more gainers than losers, if nobody drops in or out of the top 10, the only way is for one guy to drop a lot, so that a bunch of them leap over him going +1 on the week. The only way for there to be more losers than gainers in the top 10, if nobody drops in or out, is if somebody does really well and leapfrogs a bunch of guys, who all go -1. In both cases, if a guy gets ahead of somebody else by some smallish amount, it's a wash as one gains and one loses, evenly. It's only in leapfrogging where your prediction becomes true or not true. If you consider dropping out of the top 10 or getting into the top 10, it changes the picture. -Russ.
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Re: RPG - Atlanta - Julia

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