Re: LeMond / Shermer / freakonomics

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GYXU > Cycling > Re: LeMond / Shermer / freakonomics 23 May 2005 11:03:05

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Re: LeMond / Shermer / freakonomics
Robert Chung 23 May 2005 11:03:05
	ronaldo_jeremiah wrote:> What the Numbers Can Reveal> a book review by Michael Shermer> In a quarter-century of serious cycling I have heard all the rumors> about performance enhancing drugs, from stimulants in the 1970s, to> steroids in the 1980s, to blood boosters like Erythropoietin (EPO) in> the 1990s. A friend who knows my penchant for exposing fraud suggested> I track the winners' speeds from the Tour de France to note the> increase after 1991, the year he says EPO was introduced. Since my> friend won the Tour three times, I figured it was worth checking. http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf.png
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Sandy 19 May 2005 21:20:19 [ permanent link ]
	Dans le message de news:3f3tsmF5rlsnU1@individual.net, Robert Chung <me@address.invalid> a rГ©flГ©chi, et puis a dГ©clarГ© :> ronaldo_jeremiah wrote:>> What the Numbers Can Reveal>> a book review by Michael Shermer>> In a quarter-century of serious cycling I have heard all the rumors>> about performance enhancing drugs, from stimulants in the 1970s, to>> steroids in the 1980s, to blood boosters like Erythropoietin (EPO) in>> the 1990s. A friend who knows my penchant for exposing fraud>> suggested I track the winners' speeds from the Tour de France to>> note the increase after 1991, the year he says EPO was introduced.>> Since my friend won the Tour three times, I figured it was worth>> checking.> http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf.png I actually had instant recall of this graph, especially where the answer is obvious. I wonder how today's stars could cope with 500-600 km stages ? -- Bonne route, Sandy Verneuil-sur-Seine FR
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Robert Chung 19 May 2005 23:04:05 [ permanent link ]
	Sandy wrote:> I actually had instant recall of this graph I wonder how today's stars could cope with 500-600 km stages ? Hmmm. People who have instant recall of my graphs have deeper things to worry about.
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Stewart Fleming 19 May 2005 23:52:06 [ permanent link ]
	ronaldo_jeremiah wrote: Thought this may be of interest to r.b.r. At the very least, it's> notable that Shermer doesn't seem to count LeMond's virtual TdF> victories. To borrow from Fark.Com, "This article is useless without graphs."
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Stewart Fleming 19 May 2005 23:55:07 [ permanent link ]
	Sandy wrote: I actually had instant recall of this graph, especially where the answer > is obvious. Whent he whole story is known, it would be interesting to plot events in blood manipulation against the data, especially for the period 1989-1996.
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Tom Kunich 20 May 2005 03:56:21 [ permanent link ]
	"Robert Chung" <me@address.invalid> wrote in message news:3f3tsmF5rlsnU1@individual.net...> ronaldo_jeremiah wrote:>> What the Numbers Can Reveal>> a book review by Michael Shermer>> In a quarter-century of serious cycling I have heard all the rumors>> about performance enhancing drugs, from stimulants in the 1970s, to>> steroids in the 1980s, to blood boosters like Erythropoietin (EPO) in>> the 1990s. A friend who knows my penchant for exposing fraud suggested>> I track the winners' speeds from the Tour de France to note the>> increase after 1991, the year he says EPO was introduced. Since my>> friend won the Tour three times, I figured it was worth checking.> http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf.png I think that team tactics are what caused the large increase in average speed and that the shorter stages amplified it. In the 70's Eddy Merckx could afford to buy the best team and he ground everyone else into the dust. In the 80's La Vie Claire was the team to beat and it took bad luck for them to lose. Frankly, there's no other Tour team around like Postal/Discovery and it shouldn't come as a giant surprise that they provide the winner. LeMond's famous 1989 win led to a HUGE increase in the top salaries and with the advent of Big Mig the teams started to make more as well. That meant that there was a LOT more to lose if you lost your place on the team. The question is: Has there been a significant increase in average speed in the last 10 years? Well, according to Robert's charts, there was a much larger increase in average speed between the 1947 and the 1956 Tours than there were between the 1989 Tour of LeMond's and the fastest Tour on record (2003). Are there DRUGS in the peloton? I'm convinced there are. I'm NOT convinced that they make much difference nor that they are all that wide spread since other methods such as altitude tents, altitude training and maybe those cherry flavored tootsie pops seem to work.
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Robert Chung 20 May 2005 10:48:16 [ permanent link ]
	Tom Kunich wrote: http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf.png> there was a much larger increase in average speed between> the 1947 and the 1956 Tours than [snip] The cool thing about the graph is that it shows how much cherry-picking you had to do to make that comparison.
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Stewart Fleming 20 May 2005 23:41:45 [ permanent link ]
	Tom Kunich wrote:> The question is: Has there been a significant increase in average speed in > the last 10 years? Well, according to Robert's charts, there was a much > larger increase in average speed between the 1947 and the 1956 Tours than > there were between the 1989 Tour of LeMond's and the fastest Tour on record > (2003). Check for the effects of phasing out rationing and rebuilding of roads in Europe as well as population re-establishment after WW2...
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Robert Chung 21 May 2005 10:06:11 [ permanent link ]
	ronaldo_jeremiah wrote:> RC -> What is the correlation between year and average speed if you partial> out distance? http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/tdf.csv Hint: partials are easier to calculate (it's 0.6ish, btw) than they are to interpret.
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Robert Chung 21 May 2005 10:06:59 [ permanent link ]
	Ooops. Sorry. That should be http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf.csv
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Tom Kunich 22 May 2005 04:09:58 [ permanent link ]
	"Stewart Fleming" <stewart.fleming@paradise.net.nz> wrote in message news:428e3d76$1@clear.net.nz...> Tom Kunich wrote:>> The question is: Has there been a significant increase in average speed >> in the last 10 years? Well, according to Robert's charts, there was a >> much larger increase in average speed between the 1947 and the 1956 Tours >> than there were between the 1989 Tour of LeMond's and the fastest Tour on >> record (2003).> Check for the effects of phasing out rationing and rebuilding of roads in > Europe as well as population re-establishment after WW2... What difference does that make? The important factor is that you can pick several 10 year periods and see a larger difference in speed than Lemond and Armstrong.
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Robert Chung 22 May 2005 09:50:40 [ permanent link ]
	ronaldo_jeremiah wrote:> Indeed - what is your interpretation? Rather than look at partial correlations, look at the residuals of speed on distance and think about the things that influence that pattern.
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Sandy 22 May 2005 12:37:24 [ permanent link ]
	Dans le message de news:3faktlF6nuj6U1@individual.net, Robert Chung <me@address.invalid> a rГ©flГ©chi, et puis a dГ©clarГ© :> ronaldo_jeremiah wrote:>> Indeed - what is your interpretation?> Rather than look at partial correlations, look at the residuals of> speed on distance and think about the things that influence that> pattern. I wonder about the climbing stats, and whether they would influence the results. -- Sandy Verneuil-sur-Seine FR ******* La vie, c'est comme une bicyclette, il faut avancer pour ne pas perdre l'Г©quilibre. -- Einstein, A.
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Robert Chung 22 May 2005 23:54:54 [ permanent link ]
	Sandy wrote:> I wonder about the climbing stats, and whether they would influence the> results. I wonder the same thing. Do you know where climbing data are available?
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Sandy 23 May 2005 09:34:03 [ permanent link ]
	Dans le message de news:3fc6ciF6uaofU1@individual.net, Robert Chung <me@address.invalid> a rГ©flГ©chi, et puis a dГ©clarГ© :> Sandy wrote:>> I wonder about the climbing stats, and whether they would influence>> the results.> I wonder the same thing. Do you know where climbing data are> available? Data ?? (blank stare ...) -- Bonne route, Sandy Verneuil-sur-Seine FR
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Robert Chung 23 May 2005 11:03:05 [ permanent link ]
	bjw@mambo.ucolick.org wrote: http://www.ucolick.org/~bjw/misc/rbr/tdf.year_speedresid.names.png Or, the time variation could be mostly down to changes in the way> the Societe de TdF designs the course, with some additional effects> of evolution in national/trade teams and team strategies.> That seems like at least as plausible from the data as le dopage.> Course changes, for example, could explain the time variation: from> the data it's just as easy to call the 1970-1990 era abnormally slow> as it is to call the post-1990 era unnaturally fast. Yeah. That was the same conclusion I'd come to, and it seems pretty robust no matter how you specify the model. That's why I wonder about characteristics of the course over time. Nice graphs. Easier to see a pattern from graphs than from partial correlations.
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GYXU > Cycling > Re: LeMond / Shermer / freakonomics 23 May 2005 11:03:05

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