odds of guessing correct final four teams before start of tournament
Tim923 20 March 2005 23:46:21
odds of guessing correct final four teams before start of tournament ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Having 16 teams in each region (and with one region having an extra play-in game) gives 16*16*16*17 = 69632 possible final four lists. However, some teams are unlikely to reach the final four, such as 14-16 seeds, making some final four lists unrealistic.
Is there a better number for the odds of guessing the correct final four teams than 1 in 69632.
How about predicting the entire 65 team bracket (64 tournament games), 2^64=1.845*10^19.
odds of guessing correct final four teams before start of tournament>-------------------------------------------------------------------->Having 16 teams in each region (and with one region having an extra>play-in game) gives 16*16*16*17 = 69632 possible final four lists.>However, some teams are unlikely to reach the final four, such as>14-16 seeds, making some final four lists unrealistic.>
Is there a better number for the odds of guessing the correct final>four teams than 1 in 69632.>
How about predicting the entire 65 team bracket (64 tournament games),>2^64=1.845*10^19.
You've just given the odds based on each game being a 50/50 proposition, that is, either team being equally likely to win (and hence each possible scenario equally likely). But, as we know, that's not the case. So in order to calculate more realisitics odds, you'd need to have more realistic likelihoods of either team winning. And for every possible pair of teams. You'd really need a rating system like Sagarin or Pomeroy, which would allow you to calculate those likelihoods. The math would get a little hairy, because there'd be lots of conditional probabilities (of course, you probably woudln't be doing these calculations by hand).
A couple of things to note here. The odds of picking the Final Four teams correctly would depend on what teams those ended up being (so you can't say ahead of time). And whether the numbers are accurate all depends on how good your a priori likelihoods are, that is, how good the rating system you decide to use is.
And whether the numbers are accurate>all depends on how good your a priori likelihoods are, that is, how>good the rating system you decide to use is.
For businesses that have such Final Four contests (guess all 4 Final Four teams at the start of the tournament and must get all 4 right), are there any stats on what % of the entries are good.
"Tim923" <t923_1@yahoo.com> wrote in message news:rgvr31t2s3iif9qh020uktvc822lplk15h@4ax.com...> >And whether the numbers are accurate> >all depends on how good your a priori likelihoods are, that is, how> >good the rating system you decide to use is.>
For businesses that have such Final Four contests (guess all 4 Final> Four teams at the start of the tournament and must get all 4 right),> are there any stats on what % of the entries are good.
Go to espn.com or yahoo and have a look at the leaderboards for their pick 'em contests. In terms of the max potential points, it's likely that the leaders still have all four alive. Figure out how many of those there are, divide into the total entries, and there's the answer. The problem is that it's only valid for this year...if you could do that with past entries it'd give you a much better idea. But my feeling is that the odds are no more than 2 to 3 percent.
Perusion Hostmaster 21 March 2005 04:27:27 [ permanent link ]
On 2005-03-20, Tim923 <t923_1@yahoo.com> wrote:>>And whether the numbers are accurate>>all depends on how good your a priori likelihoods are, that is, how>>good the rating system you decide to use is.>
For businesses that have such Final Four contests (guess all 4 Final> Four teams at the start of the tournament and must get all 4 right),> are there any stats on what % of the entries are good.
For large populations like Yahoo, it is almost a Monte Carlo simulation.
--
Just because something is obviously happening doesn't mean something obvious is happening. --Larry Wall
And whether the numbers are accurate>>all depends on how good your a priori likelihoods are, that is, how>>good the rating system you decide to use is.>
For businesses that have such Final Four contests (guess all 4 Final>Four teams at the start of the tournament and must get all 4 right),>are there any stats on what % of the entries are good.
"are good"? Do you mean get them right?
First off, are there contests that are just Final Four contests? Most/all of the ones I've seen are the regular kinds of pools where you pick the entire bracket. And second, I suspect that with most of those, even if they don't specifically say how many people get the FF right, you'll be able to tell somehow (e.g., from what info they provide in the standings, like points per round).
George W . Harris 21 March 2005 12:33:48 [ permanent link ]
"TechGuy" <randy_rowell@hotmail.com> wrote:
:The odds of picking the correct final four depend on what your picks :are. : :If you pick four #16 seeds to reach, then chances are about zero. : :If you pick all four #1 seeds to advance then your chances are :measurable. On average a number 1 seed has about a 43% chance of :reaching the final. So if you pick all number 1 seeds you have about a 0.43)^4. This is about 3.4%. Presumably if another seed had a better :chance to reach the final four, it is not going to be much better than :43%. I don't think this has happened before, but we would expect it to :be be a once in 30 year phenomenom. So it is not really conspicuous :that it has not happened yet.
But each 1 seed's chance of reaching the final four is not identical. F'rinstance, this year I figured the most likely winners of the regionals to have chances of 61.6%, 26.1%, 40.5% and 30.7%, which averages out to about 39.7%, which is about right. But 0.616*0.261*0.405*0.307 = 0.020 < 0.025 = 0.397^4. So, the actual odds will be somewhat less than 3.4%. :
-- "If you take cranberries and stew them like applesauce, they taste much more like prunes than rhubarb does." -Groucho Marx
George W. Harris For actual email address, replace each 'u' with an 'i'
