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ACC Power Ratings Through Conference Tournament Semifinals
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GYXU > Basketball > ACC Power Ratings Through Conference Tournament Semifinals 13 March 2005 03:50:39

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ACC Power Ratings Through Conference Tournament Semifinals

George W . Harris 13 March 2005 03:50:39
 Below are power ratings for ACC men's
basketball games considering only the scores
of games between conference members through
Saturday, March 12th. The first rating
takes margin of victory fully into account,
while the third rating ignores it completely,
looking only at wins and losses. The second
rating is like the first rating, except it
weighs close games, upsets and games between
closely-matched teams more heavily than blow-
outs of overmatched teams.

Relative Schedules is the records of
the teams each team does *not* play twice (less
results against the relevant team), so a poor
record is indicative of a difficult schedule.
Games played against the team are not counted
(so, for instance, UVa's loss to Duke is not
included in the entry for Duke). The second
column is the road records of teams not played
at home plus home records of teams not played
on the road.

Just for fun, I'm including BC in this
year's ratings, even though they only play one
game against conference members.

Rating One

Record Power
TeamConfOverallOffe­nseDefenseCurrentPre­vious
1)UNC15-327-4 2)86.5 3) 2.4 88.9 1) 89.7
2)Wake Forest13-426-5 1)87.310)-3.4 83.9 2) 83.9
3)Duke13-524-5 4)79.8 2) 3.7 83.5 3) 83.5
4)NC State 9-1019-13 7)70.8 1) 6.9 77.7 4) 77.7
5)Georgia Tech10-819-10 6)73.8 4) 2.3 76.1 6) 75.2
6)Boston C 1-024-4 5)78.0 9)-2.0 76.0 5) 76.0
7)Maryland 7-1016-12 3)80.512)-9.6 70.9 7) 70.9
8)Miami 7-1016-12 8)70.6 8) 0.0 70.6 8) 70.5
9)Clemson 6-1316-1510)69.4 7) 0.5 69.9 9) 70.0
10)Va Tech 8-915-1311)66.4 6) 1.7 68.110) 68.05
11)Florida St 4-1312-1912)66.1 5) 1.9 68.011) 68.00
12)Virginia 5-1314-15 9)70.111)-4.3 65.712) 65.8

Home Court Advantage3.0

Rating Two

Record Power
TeamConfOverallOffe­nseDefenseCurrentPre­vious
1)UNC15-327-4 2)84.0 6) 1.7 85.6 1)86.7
2)Wake Forest13-426-5 1)87.6 11)-6.0 81.6 2)81.6
3)Duke13-524-5 4)78.5 2) 3.0 81.5 3)81.4
4)Boston C 1-024-4 5)77.7 9)-0.7 77.0 4)77.0
5)NC State 9-1019-1310)69.8 1) 7.0 76.8 5)76.9
6)Georgia Tech10-819-10 6)73.6 5) 2.1 75.6 6)74.8
7)Maryland 7-1016-12 3)81.6 12)-10.0 71.5 7)71.5
8)Miami 7-1016-12 8)70.28 7) 0.7 71.0 8)70.9
9)Clemson 6-1316-15 7)70.6 8) 0.1 70.7 9)70.7
10)Va Tech 8-915-1311)67.3 3) 2.8 70.210)70.1
11)Florida St 4-1312-1912)66.5 4) 2.7 69.211)69.2
12)Virginia 5-1314-15 9)70.25 10)-3.4 66.812)66.8

Home Court Advantage2.6

Rating Three

Record Power
TeamConfRW-HLOveral­lCurrentPrevious
1)UNC15-36-027-41.0­00 1)1.000
2)Wake Forest13-45-026-50.­904 2)0.837
3)Boston C 1-00-024-40.877 3)0.818
4)Duke13-54-124-50.­873 4)0.783
5)Georgia Tech10-83-319-100.5­78 5)0.465
6)NC State 9-104-519-130.455 6)0.448
7)Va Tech 8-92-215-130.379 7)0.348
8)Maryland 7-102-316-120.296 8)0.278
9)Miami 7-103-416-120.288 9)0.261
10)Clemson 6-132-516-150.16810­)0.159
11)Virginia 5-131-514-150.08711­)0.083
12)Florida St 4-131-512-190.00012­)0.000

Home Court Advantage0.236

Relative Schedules

Duke24-4413-23@Clem­son, FSU, NCState, @UVa
NC State27-3917-19Clem­son, @Duke, @FSU, Miami
Georgia Tech32-3418-17Maryl­and, UNC, @UVa, @Va Tech
Maryland32-3318-18@­FSU, @Ga Tech, Miami, Wake
Virginia33-3415-18@­Clemson, Duke, Ga Tech, @Miami
Miami35-3317-19@Mar­yland, @NC State, UNC, UVa
Florida St35-3221-15@Duke, Maryland, NCState, @Va Tech
Clemson36-3218-17Du­ke, @NC State, UVa, @Wake
Wake Forest36-3018-17Cle­mson, @Maryland, @UNC, Va Tech
UNC37-2818-18@Ga Tech, @Miami, Va Tech, Wake
Va Tech39-2721-13FSU, Ga Tech, @UNC, @Wake

Recent Games

Saturday, March 12th
#5 Georgia Tech vs #1 UNC
Rating 1: Ga Tech 71 UNC 85
Rating 2: Ga Tech 71 UNC 83
Rating 3: UNC
Result: Ga Tech 78 UNC 75
#7 NC State vs #3 Duke
Rating 1: NC State 67 Duke 73
Rating 2: NC State 66 Duke 71
Rating 3: Duke
Result: NC State 69 Duke 76

Record, Tournament and Cumulative

Rating One: 5-4, 0.556 (55-31, 0.640)
Rating Two: 5-4, 0.556 (54-32, 0.628)
Rating Three: 5-4, 0.556 (54-32, 0.628)


Upcoming Games

Sunday, March 13th
#5 Georgia Tech vs #3 Duke
Rating 1: Ga Tech 70 Duke 78
Rating 2: Ga Tech 71 Duke 76
Rating 3: Duke

Championship Probabilites:

Duke75.0%
Ga Tech25.0%

--
Doesn't the fact that there are *exactly* fifty states seem a little suspicious?

George W. Harris For actual email address, replace each 'u' with an 'i'
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GYXU > Basketball > ACC Power Ratings Through Conference Tournament Semifinals 13 March 2005 03:50:39

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