Below are the odds of each team reaching each round of the ACC Tournament.
Quarterfinals
UNC100.0% Duke100.0% Va Tech100.0% Ga Tech100.0% Wake100.0% NC State 76.1% Miami 69.8% Maryland 60.9% Clemson 39.1% Virginia 30.2% FSU 23.9%
Semifinals
UNC96.4% Duke90.5% Wake82.6% Ga Tech70.3% Va Tech29.7% NC State15.9% Miami 8.2% Maryland 2.7% FSU 1.5% Virginia 1.3% Clemson 0.9%
Finals
UNC90.6% Wake47.5% Duke46.5% Ga Tech6.6% NC State4.5% Maryland1.2% Miami1.2% Va Tech1.1% Clemson0.3% FSU0.2% Virginia0.1%
Champion
UNC64.8% Wake17.4% Duke15.4% Ga Tech1.3% NC State0.7% Maryland0.2% Va Tech0.1% Miami0.1% Clemson0.0% FSU0.0% Virginia0.0%
-- "It is always a simple matter to drag people along whether it is a democracy, or a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. This is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same in every country." -Hermann Goering
George W. Harris For actual email address, replace each 'u' with an 'i'.
Chris Manteuffel 8 March 2005 00:29:39 [ permanent link ]
George W. Harris wrote:> Below are the odds of each team reaching each> round of the ACC Tournament.>
Quarterfinals>
UNC100.0%
George, you ignorant UNC fan, why are you always thinking back to the glory years of 1998?
Chris Manteuffel
(Though this bit of satire has caused me to do a little bit of research: only one team that won on Thursday has ever won on Friday in the history of the ACC Tournament. With this new format having so many more opportunities, NCSU-Duke '97 is going to get some company, if not this year then certainly soon.)
"George W. Harris" <gharrus@mundsprung.com> wrote in message news:3k2p21t4jou3densnqqu12nv540aisr4ve@4ax.com...> Below are the odds of each team reaching each> round of the ACC Tournament.
Champion>
UNC 64.8%> Wake 17.4%> Duke 15.4%> Ga Tech 1.3%> NC State 0.7%> Maryland 0.2%> Va Tech 0.1%> Miami 0.1%> Clemson 0.0%> FSU 0.0%> Virginia 0.0%
Isn't saying that a team (or in this case, three different teams) has no statistical chance to win a tournament a bit of a stretch? Or should there be another decimal place there?
Also, what are the methods you used to determine this? Right now, there's only a 2.4% chance that a team other than UNC/Wake/Duke will win. While it's unlikely, I'd be all over 42-to-1 odds if I found a bookie who'd give it to me...
George W . Harris 9 March 2005 20:11:08 [ permanent link ]
"Erik T. Nomad" <erikthenomad@hotmail.com> wrote:
: :"George W. Harris" <gharrus@mundsprung.com> wrote in message :news:3k2p21t4jou3densnqqu12nv540aisr4ve@4ax.com... :> Below are the odds of each team reaching each :> round of the ACC Tournament. : :> Champion :> :> UNC 64.8% :> Wake 17.4% :> Duke 15.4% :> Ga Tech 1.3% :> NC State 0.7% :> Maryland 0.2% :> Va Tech 0.1% :> Miami 0.1% :> Clemson 0.0% :> FSU 0.0% :> Virginia 0.0% : :Isn't saying that a team (or in this case, three different teams) has no :statistical chance to win a tournament a bit of a stretch? Or should there :be another decimal place there?
Another couple of decimal places gives
UNC64.771% Wake17.407% Duke15.449% Ga Tech 1.325% NC State 0.655% Maryland 0.167% Va Tech 0.100% Miami 0.086% Clemson 0.029% FSU 0.009% Virginia 0.003% : :Also, what are the methods you used to determine this? Right now, there's :only a 2.4% chance that a team other than UNC/Wake/Duke will win. While :it's unlikely, I'd be all over 42-to-1 odds if I found a bookie who'd give :it to me...
I used the normal distribution function (with a SD of 11) and my power ratings to determine the odds that one team will defeat another team in any particular game. For rounds past the first, I used conditional probabilites for all possible match-ups.
If I substitute the Pomeroy ratings instead, I get this:
UNC47.4% Duke23.3% Wake20.9% Ga Tech 4.6% NC State 1.3% Maryland 1.0% Va Tech 0.6% Clemson 0.4% Miami 0.3% FSU 0.1% Virginia 0.1%
:E
-- "Intelligence is too complex to capture in a single number." -Alfred Binet
George W. Harris For actual email address, replace each 'u' with an 'i'
"George W. Harris" <gharrus@mundsprung.com> wrote in message news:qf7u219sddgia8lbb3mir4rpn3ja9tvtsq@4ax.com...> "Erik T. Nomad" <erikthenomad@hotmail.com> wrote:>
:> :"George W. Harris" <gharrus@mundsprung.com> wrote in message> :news:3k2p21t4jou3densnqqu12nv540aisr4ve@4ax.com...> :> Below are the odds of each team reaching each> :> round of the ACC Tournament.> :> :> Champion> :>> :> UNC 64.8%> :> Wake 17.4%> :> Duke 15.4%> :> Ga Tech 1.3%> :> NC State 0.7%> :> Maryland 0.2%> :> Va Tech 0.1%> :> Miami 0.1%> :> Clemson 0.0%> :> FSU 0.0%> :> Virginia 0.0%> :> :Isn't saying that a team (or in this case, three different teams) has no> :statistical chance to win a tournament a bit of a stretch? Or should
there> :be another decimal place there?>
Another couple of decimal places gives>
UNC 64.771%> Wake 17.407%> Duke 15.449%> Ga Tech 1.325%> NC State 0.655%> Maryland 0.167%> Va Tech 0.100%> Miami 0.086%> Clemson 0.029%> FSU 0.009%> Virginia 0.003%> :> :Also, what are the methods you used to determine this? Right now,
there's> :only a 2.4% chance that a team other than UNC/Wake/Duke will win. While> :it's unlikely, I'd be all over 42-to-1 odds if I found a bookie who'd give> :it to me...>
I used the normal distribution function (with a> SD of 11) and my power ratings to determine the odds> that one team will defeat another team in any particular> game. For rounds past the first, I used conditional> probabilites for all possible match-ups.>
If I substitute the Pomeroy ratings instead, I> get this:>
UNC 47.4%> Duke 23.3%> Wake 20.9%> Ga Tech 4.6%> NC State 1.3%> Maryland 1.0%> Va Tech 0.6%> Clemson 0.4%> Miami 0.3%> FSU 0.1%> Virginia 0.1%
Ok, this looks much "bettor." 8.4% would make it 11 or 12 to 1, which seems pretty fair. I wouldn't place that bet, at least.
On Wed, 09 Mar, George W Harris wrote:> "Erik T. Nomad" <erikthenomad@hotmail.com> wrote:>:Isn't saying that a team (or in this case, three different teams) has no>:statistical chance to win a tournament a bit of a stretch? Or should there>:be another decimal place there?>
Another couple of decimal places gives>
UNC64.771%> Wake17.407%> Duke15.449%> Ga Tech 1.325%> NC State 0.655%> Maryland 0.167%> Va Tech 0.100%> Miami 0.086%> Clemson 0.029%> FSU 0.009%> Virginia 0.003%
Oh yeah, that makes their chances look *infinitely* better!
