First of all, of course, the national seeds, all of whom will host:
#1 Texas (ISR #3, RPI #1) #2 Tulane (#4, #2) #3 Georgia Tech (#22, #4) #4 Cal State Fullerton (#2, #8) #5 Baylor (#11, #7) #6 Florida (#23, #12) #7 Oregon State (#1, #13) #8 Louisiana State (#12, #14)
[The actual national seeds:
1. Tulane 2. Georgia Tech 3. Nebraska 4. Baylor 5. Mississippi 6. Cal State Fullerton 7. Florida 8. Oregon State]
* I don't think we'll end up with an exact copy of 2003, where they just took the RPI top 8, this time, because North Carolina almost certainly won't be a national seed and will be in the top 8.
[Check]
* Of these, I'd say that LSU, Florida, and Baylor are the most vulnerable, in that order.
[The Big 12 conference tournament was apparently a big factor with the champion Nebraska knocking semi-finalist Texas out]
* Waiting to take their place, I'd say Miami moves back in with a good showing this week, Clemson could have actually moved themselves into this conversation, and Ole Miss might move up if they play on Sunday.
[Ole Miss played on Sunday and it cost LSU their seed]
* There are a few West Coast teams who probably should be in this discussion -- Long Beach State and Southern California, mostly -- but I think the RPI and second-place or lower conference finishes probably keep them out.
[Check]
The rest of the #1's:
Mississippi (#7, #3) Miami, Florida (#20, #5) Clemson (#19, #9) College of Charleston (#10, #17) Long Beach State (#6, #16) Southern California (#5, #18) Arizona (#8, #29) Nebraska (#10, #22)
[Louisiana State Long Beach State Texas Clemson Tennessee Florida State Coastal Carolina Miami]
Nebraska/Texas and LSU/Ole Miss swapped. Regionality prevailed as Southern Cal and CofC got stuffed into local tournaments. This opened the door for Tennessee and Florida State. The committee must have used tournament semi-final appearances by Tennesse and Florida State as justification for making them top seeds. Coastal Carolina got Arizona's #1 seed, but certainly no gift in getting sent out to Tempe. Arizona paid a very dear price for withdrawing their bid, getting dropped to a # 2 at Fullerton ]
* I think all of these but USC West and Long Beach get to host.
[This one is easy. The committee wanted a fourth western regional so that they could be paired together to eliminate as many western teams as possible. It may have come down to Long Beach making a more aggressive bid when it came down to whether they or USC would host. West Coast fans, maybe even Eric, saw this coming a long time ago.]
* The edge grouping here is the two Pac 10 teams from this list and Nebraska on the top side, with Florida State, UNC, and Coastal Carolina on the underside.
[You'd have been more accurate if you'd have reversed this one ;O) ]
