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GYXU > Baseball > ISR Top 30, 5/10/5 10 May 2005 21:00:04
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ISR Top 30, 5/10/5

Boyd Nation 10 May 2005 21:00:04
 
1 125.2 36 8 36 8 23 Oregon State
2 124.8 36 12 36 12 6 Cal State Fullerton
3 123.3 39 11 39 11 24 Texas
4 122.7 42 8 42 8 60 Tulane
5 121.4 28 15 28 15 1 Southern California
6 120.6 33 16 33 16 10 Long Beach State
7 119.3 27 17 27 17 3 Stanford
8 118.9 31 17 31 17 11 Baylor
9 118.9 35 15 35 15 29 Mississippi
10 118.6 29 18 29 18 5 Arizona State
11 118.4 39 10 39 10 85 Nebraska
12 118.0 32 15 32 15 28 Arizona
13 118.0 30 17 30 17 15 Pepperdine
14 117.7 31 16 31 16 22 Cal Poly
15 117.7 36 11 36 11 75 Miami, Florida
16 117.5 35 14 35 14 49 Arkansas
17 117.3 33 16 33 16 30 Louisiana State
18 117.1 34 15 34 15 42 San Francisco
19 117.0 38 9 38 9 123 College of Charleston
20 117.0 34 13 34 13 56 Georgia Tech
21 116.7 36 10 36 10 102 North Carolina
22 116.7 31 15 32 15 36 Rice
23 116.6 26 17 27 17 12 Washington
24 116.5 32 15 32 15 41 Florida
25 115.9 41 11 41 11 126 Louisiana-Lafayette­
26 115.8 31 21 31 21 16 California
27 115.2 30 16 30 16 40 Vanderbilt
28 115.2 32 13 32 13 72 North Carolina State
29 115.1 25 20 25 20 7 UC Irvine
30 115.0 31 16 31 16 45 Mississippi State

286 73.1 7 31 7 31 275 St. Francis
287 72.2 11 25 15 28 289 Alabama State
288 70.6 6 41 6 41 271 Maryland-Eastern Shore
289 67.7 4 38 4 38 280 St. Peter's
290 63.1 3 31 10 32 287 Alabama A&M

--
Boyd Nation boyd.nation@mindspr­ing.com
College Baseball Columns, Links, and Ratings: http://www.boydswor­ld.com
Add comment
Boyd Nation 10 May 2005 17:13:04 [ permanent link ]
 On Tue, 10 May 2005 12:57:38 -0000, Boyd Nation <boyd@asylum.emss.c­om> wrote:
288 70.6 6 41 6 41 271 Maryland-Eastern Shore
290 63.1 3 31 10 32 287 Alabama A&M

These two teams being done for the year, it's highly unlikely that this
ordering will change. The king is dead; long live the king.

--
Boyd Nation boyd.nation@mindspr­ing.com
College Baseball Columns, Links, and Ratings: http://www.boydswor­ld.com
Add comment
Boyd Nation 10 May 2005 20:25:14 [ permanent link ]
 On 10 May 2005 09:01:27 -0700, RiverRat <WDS225@Yahoo.Com> wrote:>Seems strange that the team leading the SEC East (and overall) isn't in>your top 30.>Ditto Alabama that leads the SEC West.
Boyd, I think you may have blown a mother board.

Oh, look, he spent thirty seconds reading the standings in the paper this
morning, realized there were other teams outside of Baton Rouge, and now
he's an expert.

Both teams were fairly wretched out of conference (actually, Tennessee may
not have been that bad; it's hard to tell since the Minute Maid Classic
was the only competition they faced, and they didn't exactly thrive there.
Tennessee Temple? Three time?). If either of them is in first in their
division next Monday, much less in two weeks, I'll be surprised. But go
ahead, make your case -- who should drop out of the top 30 to make room
for them?

--
Boyd Nation boyd.nation@mindspr­ing.com
College Baseball Columns, Links, and Ratings: http://www.boydswor­ld.com
Add comment
Rick Rollins 10 May 2005 21:00:04 [ permanent link ]
 "Boyd Nation" <boyd@asylum.emss.c­om> wrote in message
news:slrnd81o38.o81­.boyd@asylum.emss.co­m...> On 10 May 2005 09:01:27 -0700, RiverRat <WDS225@Yahoo.Com> wrote:> >Seems strange that the team leading the SEC East (and overall) isn't in> >your top 30.> >Ditto Alabama that leads the SEC West.>
Boyd, I think you may have blown a mother board.>
Oh, look, he spent thirty seconds reading the standings in the paper this> morning, realized there were other teams outside of Baton Rouge, and now> he's an expert.>
Both teams were fairly wretched out of conference (actually, Tennessee may> not have been that bad; it's hard to tell since the Minute Maid Classic> was the only competition they faced, and they didn't exactly thrive there.> Tennessee Temple? Three time?). If either of them is in first in their> division next Monday, much less in two weeks, I'll be surprised. But go> ahead, make your case -- who should drop out of the top 30 to make room> for them?

UC Irvine and Washington.


Add comment
Boyd Nation 10 May 2005 21:35:03 [ permanent link ]
 On Tue, 10 May 2005 17:00:04 GMT, Rick Rollins <rrollins@pronetisp­.net> wrote:>"Boyd Nation" <boyd@asylum.emss.c­om> wrote in message>news:slrnd8­1o38.o81.boyd@asylum­.emss.com...
Both teams were fairly wretched out of conference (actually, Tennessee may>> not have been that bad; it's hard to tell since the Minute Maid Classic>> was the only competition they faced, and they didn't exactly thrive there.>> Tennessee Temple? Three time?). If either of them is in first in their>> division next Monday, much less in two weeks, I'll be surprised. But go>> ahead, make your case -- who should drop out of the top 30 to make room>> for them?
UC Irvine and Washington.

That's not a case, it's two names. Let's hear it, what evidence is there
that Tennessee is better than UDub (or whatever pair you want to pick)?

--
Boyd Nation boyd.nation@mindspr­ing.com
College Baseball Columns, Links, and Ratings: http://www.boydswor­ld.com
Add comment
Rick Rollins 11 May 2005 07:39:06 [ permanent link ]
 "Boyd Nation" <boyd@asylum.emss.c­om> wrote in message
news:slrnd81s67.o81­.boyd@asylum.emss.co­m...> On Tue, 10 May 2005 17:00:04 GMT, Rick Rollins <rrollins@pronetisp­.net>
wrote:> >"Boyd Nation" <boyd@asylum.emss.c­om> wrote in message> >news:slrnd81o38.o8­1.boyd@asylum.emss.c­om...

After looking more closely at the results, I'll say UC Irvine probably is
better than Tennessee, though not by that much -- their non-conference
schedule is much tougher, for sure. But generally the numbers I look at
when comparing top-notch teams are their results against top 25 and top 50
competition, not things like RPI and ISR's where the strength of the entire
schedule is a big factor.

Against teams in the ISR top 25, UC Irvine is 9-5, Tennessee is 5-5,
Washington is 4-8. Against teams in the ISR top 50, Tennesse is 14-8, UC
Irvine is 14-11, and Washington is 9-14.

I agree Tennessee has had much too much fat on their schedule this year, but
I think they've certainly played better against top competition that
Washington has, and nearly the same as UC Irvine has. Irvine gets the nod
in playing a tougher non-conference schedule. I personally see Washington's
schedule inflating their ratings, and don't believe they've played that well
against quality competition.


Add comment
Boyd Nation 11 May 2005 19:36:53 [ permanent link ]
 On Wed, 11 May 2005 03:39:06 GMT, Rick Rollins <rrollins@pronetisp­.net> wrote:
After looking more closely at the results, I'll say UC Irvine probably is>better than Tennessee, though not by that much -- their non-conference>sche­dule is much tougher, for sure. But generally the numbers I look at>when comparing top-notch teams are their results against top 25 and top 50>competition, not things like RPI and ISR's where the strength of the entire>schedule is a big factor.
Against teams in the ISR top 25, UC Irvine is 9-5, Tennessee is 5-5,>Washington is 4-8. Against teams in the ISR top 50, Tennesse is 14-8, UC>Irvine is 14-11, and Washington is 9-14.
I agree Tennessee has had much too much fat on their schedule this year, but>I think they've certainly played better against top competition that>Washington has, and nearly the same as UC Irvine has. Irvine gets the nod>in playing a tougher non-conference schedule. I personally see Washington's>schedu­le inflating their ratings, and don't believe they've played that well>against quality competition.

The problem I have with this sort of analysis, though, is that it only
gives you a partial picture -- in this particular case, it misses the fact
that Tennessee has losses to all of Furman, Belmont, UNC-Asheville, and
Bethune-Cookman this year. I will grant that UDub has struggled against the
very best this year, which isn't helped by the fact that their best series
win is against Cal Poly, the standard underrated third-place Big West team.

--
Boyd Nation boyd.nation@mindspr­ing.com
College Baseball Columns, Links, and Ratings: http://www.boydswor­ld.com
Add comment
Boyd Nation 11 May 2005 20:19:46 [ permanent link ]
 On 11 May 2005 09:09:18 -0700, RiverRat <WDS225@Yahoo.Com> wrote:
Boyd, you better tweak up your program, or you are going to be>embarassed when the tournament teams are announced.

Oh my gosh, you mean there might be a year in which the tournament picks
disagree with what I think they should be? You're right, I better pack it
in.

Using the phrase "playing for real" doesn't do wonders for your credibility.

--
Boyd Nation boyd.nation@mindspr­ing.com
College Baseball Columns, Links, and Ratings: http://www.boydswor­ld.com
Add comment
Tanner 11 May 2005 20:25:01 [ permanent link ]
 

Boyd Nation wrote:
Using the phrase "playing for real" doesn't do wonders for your credibility.

As if.



GT

Add comment
Rick Rollins 12 May 2005 02:57:27 [ permanent link ]
 "Boyd Nation" <boyd@asylum.emss.c­om> wrote in message
news:slrnd849kk.bm.­boyd@asylum.emss.com­...> On Wed, 11 May 2005 03:39:06 GMT, Rick Rollins <rrollins@pronetisp­.net>
wrote:>
The problem I have with this sort of analysis, though, is that it only> gives you a partial picture -- in this particular case, it misses the fact> that Tennessee has losses to all of Furman, Belmont, UNC-Asheville, and> Bethune-Cookman this year. I will grant that UDub has struggled against
very best this year, which isn't helped by the fact that their best series> win is against Cal Poly, the standard underrated third-place Big West
team.

I agree that looking only at what I suggested is only a part of the
picture.
I am sure that your ratings put more weight than I would on those
particular games.
I am more than willing to admit that when I compare top teams, I will
look
at results against top 25 and top 50 teams first and rank teams
accordingly;
only if I think teams are comparable would I then look at the results
against
lesser teams. I am willing to admit than Tennessee is way too
inconsistent
to rank them into the top ten. However, to play significantly better
against
top-ranked opponents then the teams they are being compared to, as they
have in several of those comparisons (IMO), indicates to me they have a
better team. I don't expect everyone to agree with that way of thinking,
but
that's what I believe. And honestly, just as an example, if a committee
of
baseball people looked at the ISR's, top-25 and top-50 numbers of
Tennessee
and let's say Mississippi State, which team do you really think the
committee
would take as the better team (especially, in that case, when there are
some
head-to-head results to also look at) ?


Add comment
Tanner 12 May 2005 19:40:20 [ permanent link ]
 

RiverRat wrote:>>Oh my gosh, you mean there might be a year in >which the tournament>
picks>
disagree with what I think they should be? >You're right, I better>
pack it>
in.>
No Boyd that's not what I mean, I mean you and your egghead computer> are going to be very embarassed if a team like Tennessee wins the SEC> (gasp) and you don't even have them in your top 30. Which is how it> stands right now, with two weekends to geaux in the season..


Umm, Boyd has them at #32, and they have series against LSU and Georgia
remaining. If they do end up on top of the SEC, they'll have to beat
those teams, which will improve both their record and their SoS, so I
don't think that's an issue.

That was my original point in my first comments.> If you are so used to being wrong (or different from the NCAA picks),> then why are you so snippy when I disagreed with you in the first> place.

Probably because you're starting with the assumption that the NCAA
selection committee does a good job.

I did this a couple of years ago when the selections/seeding seemed
particularly bad:

http://snipurl.com/­eu5t
This just illustrates how far you have gotten from reality in college> ball.

You've spent much of the year advocating firing the coach of a team
that's ranked #11 in the nation and has been to the CWS two years in a
row. Reality is a two-layover flight from where you are.



GT

(Shaddup Nadrews, I was advocating firing a coach with an 88-80 record.)

Add comment
Tanner 12 May 2005 22:29:37 [ permanent link ]
 

RiverRat wrote:
Not that I need a defense, but I feel the same about the present LSU> coaches as I am sure you must have felt back then. It's no fun watching> an inept, un-coached looking team win on talent alone in spite of> themselves.

Texas wasn't winning on talent alone -- THEY WEREN'T WINNING, PERIOD.
They were 88-80 in Augie's first three years.

Add comment
Rick Rollins 12 May 2005 23:19:15 [ permanent link ]
 "Tanner" <tanner@knuckler.co­m> wrote in message
news:d607bi$cldg$1@­news.swt.edu...>
RiverRat wrote:>
Not that I need a defense, but I feel the same about the present LSU> > coaches as I am sure you must have felt back then. It's no fun watching> > an inept, un-coached looking team win on talent alone in spite of> > themselves.>
Texas wasn't winning on talent alone -- THEY WEREN'T WINNING, PERIOD.> They were 88-80 in Augie's first three years.

But, honestly, Texas wasn't really losing more than their talent level
would dictate.
That was about where they were talent-wise given the schedules they
played.


Add comment
Rick Rollins 12 May 2005 23:19:18 [ permanent link ]
 "Boyd Nation" <boyd@asylum.emss.c­om> wrote in message
news:slrnd86u3h.3gk­.boyd@asylum.emss.co­m...> On 12 May 2005 08:14:05 -0700, RiverRat <WDS225@Yahoo.Com> wrote:> >RR is completely right, these games do not carry the same weight as> >games "for real". When you look at determining what a team will do in> >late May and June when the bullets flying by, are "real" and will end> >your season.

Well, that's not what I said. I think a midweek game against Belmont
does
not carry the same weight as a series against Florida, or an early game
against Baylor. Just as an example, the Rice-Houston series or
Rice-Texas
series has been an excellent indicator in recent years, even though there
were
no conference implications.

But I do agree that many (perhaps most) coaches are likely to use the
early
schedule and midweek games to take chances they would not normally take,
some which don't pay off and some which do, to get their teams ready for
the
conference seasons. I think there should be some added weight there, but
emperically I wouldn't know how much (perhaps not much). One of the hard
things for a rating system to do is to figure out just what it is one is
trying to measure,
what conclusions as to future events one might draw from it, and how to
validate it.
How are we ever REALLY going to know if Boyd's system is right or wrong
in
evaluating whether Tennessee is better than Washington, with the minimal
amount
of schedule overlap that we get? We probably can't -- the best we can do
is try
to understand what is being measured, and factor that in to our personal
decision
making process.

Moreover, a team like RIce or ORU, who have been much better than their
conference associates in recent years, might actually withhold their top
pitchers in
conference games to pitch them in key mid-week games (like Rice against
Texas
or ORU against Oklahoma or Arizona State).
Well, I'm tired of vitriol (not out of it, of course, just bored with it> for now) and we've reached the point of raising a couple of interesting> questions for future study, which is a small part of the point of having> these exchanges in the first place:>
- How often is a major conference champ actually the best team in the> conference? Is it even a majority of the time? Using the SEC as a guide,> I get four of the last eight years when the best team has won (1997, 2000,> 2002, 2003, if you're scoring at home). That's the nature of baseball in> an environment where you only get 30 games to decide. Enjoy the flags,
don't swallow the hype.

Well, that depends on how you define best team. We might well say the
best team ALWAYS wins if we define the best team as the one who wins it.
- I've had a working theory for a while that the success of the fourth> starter during the season is actually one of the best indicators for> postseason success, at least at the regional level. Not everyone's
willing> to sacrifice Lane Mestepey's arm for one last shot at Omaha (OK, not quite> done with the vitriol).

I had a similar theory about pitching depth being a key indicator to
regional
suggess (especially when the NCAA had 6-team regionals, which is still
common at the lower divisions). Did you ever try to test that theory --
if so,
what tests did you run? I'm interested in any such results.



Add comment
Jeffrey Hodgkinson 13 May 2005 02:10:00 [ permanent link ]
 On Tue, 10 May 2005 13:13:04 -0000, boyd@asylum.emss.co­m (Boyd Nation)
wrote:
On Tue, 10 May 2005 12:57:38 -0000, Boyd Nation <boyd@asylum.emss.c­om> wrote:>
288 70.6 6 41 6 41 271 Maryland-Eastern Shore>
290 63.1 3 31 10 32 287 Alabama A&M>
These two teams being done for the year, it's highly unlikely that this>ordering will change. The king is dead; long live the king.

Sniff, sniff. What a great ride it was! A legend has passed, and we
will mourn the loss.
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GYXU > Baseball > ISR Top 30, 5/10/5 10 May 2005 21:00:04
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