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GYXU > Baseball > Yo Boyd! 9 May 2005 19:22:58

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Yo Boyd!
GTanner 25 February 2005 07:40:21
	You lurking, or should I email you directly for a discussion on the effect of the new improved basketball RPI's? tanner@tee-ex-state-dot-edu GT (VERMONT?!!??!)
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Boyd Nation 25 February 2005 07:50:04 [ permanent link ]
	On Thu, 24 Feb 2005 21:40:21 -0600, GTanner <tanner@nospam.nospam> wrote: You lurking, or should I email you directly for a discussion on the >effect of the new improved basketball RPI's? I'm here (and have posted more than you have this year, so I'm not sure what you mean by lurking). It's broke, although not as bad as the baseball formula. The interesting thing is that the old formula, which was close to the baseball one, actually worked pretty well for basketball. The new one's broken because it's an attempt at social engineering rather than ranking. -- Boyd Nation boyd.nation@mindspring.com College Baseball Columns, Links, and Ratings: http://www.boydsworld.com
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GTanner 25 February 2005 20:08:27 [ permanent link ]
	Boyd Nation wrote: It's broke, although not as bad as the baseball formula. The interesting> thing is that the old formula, which was close to the baseball one, actually> worked pretty well for basketball. The new one's broken because it's an> attempt at social engineering rather than ranking. Is accounting for the road-home location of the game the only change they made to the formula? Is that change significant enough to explain why there are so many more highly ranked mid-majors than in previous years? Is the baseball RPI going to have the same adjustment?
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GTanner 25 February 2005 20:34:32 [ permanent link ]
	Boyd Nation wrote:> On Fri, 25 Feb 2005 10:08:27 -0600, GTanner <tanner@nospam.nospam> wrote:> Boyd Nation wrote:>> It's broke, although not as bad as the baseball formula. The interesting>>>thing is that the old formula, which was close to the baseball one, actually>>>worked pretty well for basketball. The new one's broken because it's an>>>attempt at social engineering rather than ranking.> Is accounting for the road-home location of the game the only change >>they made to the formula?> That's correct, although that's a serious change. Basically road wins> count as 1.4 "wins" (and home losses count correspondingly) while home> wins are only worth 0.6 "wins". Do you have any idea how they arrived at this adjustment amount? Did they just pull numbers out of the air? or did they do backtesting (snicker... doubtful)? I do remember when they first announced it, and one of the committee members said something like "we're making road wins worth 40% more than home wins." So if he couldn't understand that 1.4 was more than 40% bigger than 0.6, I'd be highly surprised if they arrived at those numbers through any kind of statistical test. Is the baseball RPI going to have the same adjustment?> Not as far as anyone knows. I take it that you're hoping the answer is "no"? Do you have a problem with the concept of the adjustment or with the size of it? I think the concept's great -- it's a carrot to get the big schools to play more road games. But seeing Vermont ranked #13 in basketball tells me they overdid it. GT
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Boyd Nation 25 February 2005 20:53:17 [ permanent link ]
	On Fri, 25 Feb 2005 10:34:32 -0600, GTanner <tanner@nospam.nospam> wrote: Boyd Nation wrote:>> On Fri, 25 Feb 2005 10:08:27 -0600, GTanner <tanner@nospam.nospam> wrote: Boyd Nation wrote: It's broke, although not as bad as the baseball formula. The interesting>>>>thing is that the old formula, which was close to the baseball one, actually>>>>worked pretty well for basketball. The new one's broken because it's an>>>>attempt at social engineering rather than ranking. Is accounting for the road-home location of the game the only change >>>they made to the formula? That's correct, although that's a serious change. Basically road wins>> count as 1.4 "wins" (and home losses count correspondingly) while home>> wins are only worth 0.6 "wins". Do you have any idea how they arrived at this adjustment amount? Did >they just pull numbers out of the air? or did they do backtesting >(snicker... doubtful)? It doesn't match up in any way with the actual home court advantage, so I suspect it's just made up. Is the baseball RPI going to have the same adjustment? Not as far as anyone knows. I take it that you're hoping the answer is "no"? Do you have a problem >with the concept of the adjustment or with the size of it? I think the concept's great -- it's a carrot to get the big schools to >play more road games. But seeing Vermont ranked #13 in basketball tells >me they overdid it. They can rank, or they can do social engineering. They can't do both at the same time. Now, it's not like they can break the baseball RPI much worse than it already is, but that's not a reason to do something like this. If they want to come up with a way to force teams to play more road games, just legislate it and be done with it. -- Boyd Nation boyd.nation@mindspring.com College Baseball Columns, Links, and Ratings: http://www.boydsworld.com
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GTanner 25 February 2005 21:00:18 [ permanent link ]
	Boyd Nation wrote:> They can rank, or they can do social engineering. ??? What's the purpose of rankings? What do you think rankings should explain? GT
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Boyd Nation 25 February 2005 21:08:27 [ permanent link ]
	On Fri, 25 Feb 2005 11:00:18 -0600, GTanner <tanner@nospam.nospam> wrote:> Boyd Nation wrote:>> They can rank, or they can do social engineering. ???> What's the purpose of rankings?> What do you think rankings should explain? Who's had the best season? Now, there are various definitions you can put on that question, such as, "Who's the best team at this time?" or, "Who's the most likely to win this postseason shindig we're putting on?" or, "Who's been the most consistently good over the course of this season?", but that's the core question. "Who did what we wanted them to behaviorally?" isn't really all that satisfying a definition. -- Boyd Nation boyd.nation@mindspring.com College Baseball Columns, Links, and Ratings: http://www.boydsworld.com
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GTanner 25 February 2005 21:13:18 [ permanent link ]
	Boyd Nation wrote:> On Fri, 25 Feb 2005 11:00:18 -0600, GTanner <tanner@nospam.nospam> wrote:> Boyd Nation wrote:>> They can rank, or they can do social engineering. > ???>> What's the purpose of rankings?>> What do you think rankings should explain?> Who's had the best season? And you don't think the location of the game(s) influences that answer at all? GT
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Chris Bellomy 25 February 2005 21:24:27 [ permanent link ]
	GTanner <tanner@nospam.nospam> wrote: : : : Boyd Nation wrote: : > They can rank, or they can do social engineering. : : ??? : : What's the purpose of rankings? : : What do you think rankings should explain? I think Boyd is saying that using rankings to club big-name programs into more road games is stoopidl. cb
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Boyd Nation 25 February 2005 21:28:28 [ permanent link ]
	On Fri, 25 Feb 2005 11:13:18 -0600, GTanner <tanner@nospam.nospam> wrote: Boyd Nation wrote:>> On Fri, 25 Feb 2005 11:00:18 -0600, GTanner <tanner@nospam.nospam> wrote: Boyd Nation wrote: They can rank, or they can do social engineering. ???>>> What's the purpose of rankings?>>> What do you think rankings should explain? Who's had the best season? And you don't think the location of the game(s) influences that answer >at all? Oh, of course; there's a HFA factor in the ISR's, after all. They're not trying to accurately measure anything, though; they're trying to influence behavior. It's not like it's all that hard to find out what the home court advantage is and try to accurately model it -- that they didn't do so shows that they're not interested in accuracy but in control. -- Boyd Nation boyd.nation@mindspring.com College Baseball Columns, Links, and Ratings: http://www.boydsworld.com
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GTanner 25 February 2005 21:49:01 [ permanent link ]
	Chris Bellomy wrote:> GTanner <tanner@nospam.nospam> wrote:> : > : > : Boyd Nation wrote:> : > They can rank, or they can do social engineering. > : > : ???> : > : What's the purpose of rankings?> : > : What do you think rankings should explain?> I think Boyd is saying that using rankings to club big-name> programs into more road games is stoopidl. Figures. He always has been openly biased towards LSU. GT
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Chris Bellomy 25 February 2005 22:12:10 [ permanent link ]
	GTanner <tanner@nospam.nospam> wrote: : : : Chris Bellomy wrote: : > GTanner <tanner@nospam.nospam> wrote: : > : : > : : > : Boyd Nation wrote: : > : > They can rank, or they can do social engineering. : > : : > : ??? : > : : > : What's the purpose of rankings? : > : : > : What do you think rankings should explain? : > : > I think Boyd is saying that using rankings to club big-name : > programs into more road games is stoopidl. : : Figures. He always has been openly biased towards LSU. True. Now everybody is going to be traveling to recruit that big-name Cuban talent.
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Todd Warner 26 February 2005 08:57:43 [ permanent link ]
	Tom Penders doesn't seem to happy about the RPI changes: http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/sports/bk/bkc/men/3051375
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GTanner 26 February 2005 18:10:06 [ permanent link ]
	Todd Warner wrote:> Tom Penders doesn't seem to happy about the RPI changes:> http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/sports/bk/bkc/men/3051375> Tom Penders has never been happy about anything, except for the time the local tanning salon had Half Price Month. GT
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GTanner 28 February 2005 18:54:31 [ permanent link ]
	Boyd Nation wrote:> On Fri, 25 Feb 2005 11:13:18 -0600, GTanner <tanner@nospam.nospam> wrote:>>And you don't think the location of the game(s) influences that answer >>at all?> Oh, of course; there's a HFA factor in the ISR's, after all. How did you determine it? How big is your HFA factor? ie, what adjustment should they have used in the RPI instead of 0.6 and 1.4?
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Boyd Nation 28 February 2005 19:06:48 [ permanent link ]
	On Mon, 28 Feb 2005 08:54:31 -0600, GTanner <tanner@nospam.nospam> wrote: Boyd Nation wrote:>> On Fri, 25 Feb 2005 11:13:18 -0600, GTanner <tanner@nospam.nospam> wrote:>>>And you don't think the location of the game(s) influences that answer >>>at all? Oh, of course; there's a HFA factor in the ISR's, after all. How did you determine it? How big is your HFA factor? ie, what >adjustment should they have used in the RPI instead of 0.6 and 1.4? The home team wins 54-55% of the time, all other things being equal. That's true both at the college level over the last eight years and at the major league level over at least the last century. 10% is the correct adjustment. I don't have the numbers off the top of my head for basketball; my recollection is that HCA is around 62%, but don't quote me on that. -- Boyd Nation boyd.nation@mindspring.com College Baseball Columns, Links, and Ratings: http://www.boydsworld.com
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Boyd Nation 6 May 2005 22:18:47 [ permanent link ]
	On Fri, 06 May 2005 13:08:16 -0500, Tanner <tanner@knuckler.com> wrote: Go to the baseball forum on Texags.com and you'll seriously find more >discussion of Aggie softball than Aggie baseball -- the only baseball >topic any of the Aggies want to discuss is that Mark Johnson needs to be >fired and who the replacement should be, and the moderaters refuse to >allow posts on that topic. That is one defeated fan base.> Let's see if your projection stirs them up:> http://texags.com/main/forum.reply.asp?topic_id=437989&forum_id=8 http://groups-beta.google.com/group/rec.sport.baseball.college/browse_thread/thread/7812ec27b7562b29/ca4e15bc6267b650 or http://tinyurl.com/cp94u -- Boyd Nation boyd.nation@mindspring.com College Baseball Columns, Links, and Ratings: http://www.boydsworld.com
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Rick Rollins 7 May 2005 07:12:17 [ permanent link ]
	"Boyd Nation" <boyd@asylum.emss.com> wrote in message news:slrnd7n9lp.cuf.boyd@asylum.emss.com...> On Fri, 06 May 2005 16:55:46 GMT, Rick Rollins <rrollins@pronetisp.net> wrote:> > and thinks UGa should be one of the last ones eliminated.> I think that if the SEC got all 12 teams in, Boyd still wouldn't be> >happy -- he'd> > suggest the SEC should immediately expand and get that team in as well.> OK, take the conference affiliation out of the equation. Pretend that> Auburn is an independent who just happened to play the same schedule that> they have played. Make a case against them.> Boyd, it was just a joke. But if I were going to pick on an SEC team, it's Vandy, not Auburn, that I think should be left out besides UGa and UK.
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Boyd Nation 9 May 2005 17:56:36 [ permanent link ]
	On Fri, 06 May 2005 17:17:45 -0000, Boyd Nation <boyd@asylum.emss.com> wrote: If you assume that Kansas gets swept this weekend Obviously, I underestimated the evilocity of the Longhorns, being willing to essentially give away a shot at the conference title just to keep the Aggies out of the tournament. Now that's dedication to a cause. -- Boyd Nation boyd.nation@mindspring.com College Baseball Columns, Links, and Ratings: http://www.boydsworld.com
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Chris Bellomy 9 May 2005 19:22:58 [ permanent link ]
	Boyd Nation <boyd@asylum.emss.com> wrote: : On Fri, 06 May 2005 17:17:45 -0000, Boyd Nation <boyd@asylum.emss.com> wrote: : : > If you assume that Kansas gets swept this weekend : : Obviously, I underestimated the evilocity of the Longhorns, being willing : to essentially give away a shot at the conference title just to keep the : Aggies out of the tournament. Now that's dedication to a cause. I donated to their slush fund. cb
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GYXU > Baseball > Yo Boyd! 9 May 2005 19:22:58

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