Sunday, 3 August 2008
|
| RC/25 for LFs (8/2) Nelson Lu 07:51:30 |
| | RC/25 PRC/25 Value
Matt Holliday, Colorado 9.08 8.41 44.1
Pat Burrell, Philadelphia 8.08 8.01 43.2
Jason Bay, Boston 7.02 7.74 44.1
Adam Dunn, Cincinnati 7.14 7.35 36.0
ELITE LEVEL? 7.29
Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles-N 7.29 7.02 32.7
Ryan Braun, Milwaukee 6.78 6.88 37.0
Carlos Quentin, Chicago-A 6.79 6.47 29.7
Carlos Lee, Houston 6.71 6.34 28.5
Johnny Damon, New York-A 6.58 6.14 22.8
Skip Schumaker, St. Louis 5.91 6.12 23.6
Alfonso Soriano, Chicago-N 6.56 6.05 16.0
Raul Ibanez, Seattle 5.49 5.74 23.2
AVERAGE REGULAR LF 5.43
Scott Hairston, San Diego 4.96 5.41 13.3
Luke Scott, Baltimore 5.52 5.36 14.3
Ben Francisco, Cleveland 5.14 5.34 12.4
Willie Harris, Washington 5.17 5.19 8.1
Fred Lewis, San Francisco 5.44 5.15 13.9
Luis Gonzalez, Florida 4.89 5.04 9.1
Marcus Thames, Detroit 5.33 5.01 7.9
Delmon Young, Minnesota 4.70 4.99 12.7
Juan Pierre, Los Angeles-N 4.18 4.83 8.6
Gary Matthews, Los Angeles-A 5.03 4.83 10.4
Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay 4.47 4.73 11.0
David Murphy, Texas 4.89 4.57 8.4
Gregor Blanco, Atlanta 4.68 4.37 4.9
Jose Guillen, Kansas City 4.09 4.13 3.2
Endy Chavez, New York-N 3.84 4.05 1.4
Shannon Stewart, Toronto 3.80 3.90 0.2
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 3.86
Emil Brown, Oakland 3.72 3.85 -0.1
Eric Byrnes, Arizona 2.88 2.59 -8.4
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
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|
| RC/25 for SSes (8/2) Nelson Lu 07:46:58 |
| | RC/25 PRC/25 Value
Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles-N 9.84 11.36 29.1
Hanley Ramirez, Florida 6.74 6.94 49.8
Jose Reyes, New York-N 6.57 6.93 51.9
Mike Aviles, Kansas City 6.31 6.37 18.5
ELITE LEVEL? 6.17
J. J. Hardy, Milwaukee 5.86 5.95 30.7
Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia 5.53 5.48 25.0
Jhonny Peralta, Cleveland 5.12 5.32 26.9
Ryan Theriot, Chicago-N 5.74 5.29 26.4
Clint Barmes, Colorado 5.49 5.09 13.1
Michael Young, Texas 5.30 4.95 24.5
Cristian Guzman, Washington 4.89 4.91 23.3
Maicer Izturis, Los Angeles-A 4.89 4.70 14.2
Jeff Keppinger, Cincinnati 4.49 4.62 12.9
Yunel Escobar, Atlanta 4.90 4.57 17.1
Derek Jeter, New York-A 4.86 4.54 18.2
David Eckstein, Toronto 4.40 4.52 10.2
Brendan Harris, Minnesota 4.23 4.48 14.8
Stephen Drew, Arizona 4.96 4.48 17.2
Jack Wilson, Pittsburgh 4.05 4.47 9.3
AVERAGE REGULAR SS 4.46
Miguel Tejada, Houston 4.60 4.35 16.5
Julio Lugo, Boston 4.49 4.32 10.3
Orlando Cabrera, Chicago-A 4.41 4.20 15.6
Bobby Crosby, Oakland 3.68 3.82 9.4
Edgar Renteria, Detroit 3.66 3.44 4.8
Jason Bartlett, Tampa Bay 3.11 3.29 2.6
Yuniesky Betancourt, Seattle 3.10 3.24 2.6
Cesar Izturis, St. Louis 3.09 3.20 1.6
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 3.00
Khalil Greene, San Diego 2.75 3.00 -0.0
Omar Vizquel, San Francisco 1.60 1.52 -8.9
Freddie Bynum, Baltimore 0.92 0.89 -8.0
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
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|
| RC/25 for 3Bs (8/2) Nelson Lu 07:42:16 |
| | RC/25 PRC/25 Value
Chipper Jones, Atlanta 10.83 10.11 51.8
Alex Rodriguez, New York-A 8.51 7.94 38.7
David Wright, New York-N 7.09 7.48 46.3
ELITE LEVEL? 7.03
Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay 6.34 6.70 31.2
Ramon Vazquez, Texas 7.01 6.55 18.7
Troy Glaus, St. Louis 6.26 6.49 32.6
Casey Blake, Los Angeles-N 5.87 6.13 24.7
Jorge Cantu, Florida 5.63 5.80 26.5
Aramis Ramirez, Chicago-N 6.26 5.78 24.0
Edwin Encarnacion, Cincinnati 5.55 5.71 21.2
Carlos Guillen, Detroit 5.93 5.57 20.1
Garrett Atkins, Colorado 5.70 5.28 19.8
Adrian Beltre, Seattle 5.05 5.28 20.0
AVERAGE REGULAR 3B 5.20
Mike Lowell, Boston 5.39 5.18 15.5
Jose Bautista, Pittsburgh 4.62 5.10 13.3
Kevin Kouzmanoff, San Diego 4.64 5.06 16.7
Mark Reynolds, Arizona 5.51 4.97 14.4
Scott Rolen, Toronto 4.82 4.95 11.7
Blake DeWitt, Los Angeles-N 4.28 4.94 10.8
Ty Wigginton, Houston 5.10 4.83 8.1
Alex Gordon, Kansas City 4.72 4.76 13.3
Chone Figgins, Los Angeles-A 4.89 4.70 8.8
Joe Crede, Chicago-A 4.93 4.69 9.8
Ryan Zimmerman, Washington 4.49 4.52 6.0
Pedro Feliz, Philadelphia 4.45 4.41 7.8
Jack Hannahan, Oakland 4.13 4.28 6.0
Jose Castillo, San Francisco 4.14 3.92 3.0
Melvin Mora, Baltimore 4.00 3.88 2.7
Bill Hall, Milwaukee 3.67 3.73 0.8
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 3.64
Mike Lamb, Minnesota 2.69 2.85 -5.5
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
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|
| RC/25 for 2Bs (8/2) Nelson Lu 07:38:21 |
| | RC/25 PRC/25 Value
Chase Utley, Philadelphia 7.06 7.00 42.1
Ian Kinsler, Texas 7.39 6.90 43.3
Dan Uggla, Florida 6.62 6.82 35.3
ELITE LEVEL? 6.72
Alexi Casilla, Minnesota 5.57 5.91 16.9
Brian Roberts, Baltimore 5.98 5.80 29.6
Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles-A 6.01 5.77 15.4
Dustin Pedroia, Boston 5.97 5.74 29.1
Orlando Hudson, Arizona 6.16 5.56 22.6
Aaron Miles, St. Louis 5.31 5.51 15.8
Jose Lopez, Seattle 5.24 5.47 25.1
Ray Durham, Milwaukee 5.70 5.41 16.2
Jeff Baker, Colorado 5.75 5.33 12.6
Luis Castillo, New York-N 5.03 5.31 13.9
Mark DeRosa, Chicago-N 5.72 5.28 19.1
Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati 5.12 5.27 23.4
Alexei Ramirez, Chicago-A 5.42 5.17 14.0
Placido Polanco, Detroit 5.33 5.01 17.6
Akinori Iwamura, Tampa Bay 4.71 4.98 19.4
Mark Grudzielanek, Kansas City 4.92 4.96 14.5
AVERAGE REGULAR 2B 4.93
Kelly Johnson, Atlanta 5.16 4.82 15.0
Kazuo Matsui, Houston 5.08 4.81 12.0
Jeff Kent, Los Angeles-N 4.02 4.64 12.4
Tadahito Iguchi, San Diego 4.16 4.54 8.0
Mark Ellis, Oakland 4.31 4.46 12.1
Marco Scutaro, Toronto 4.33 4.45 10.3
Jamey Carroll, Cleveland 4.25 4.41 6.9
Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee 3.99 4.05 6.9
Robinson Cano, New York-A 3.72 3.47 0.8
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 3.41
Freddy Sanchez, Pittsburgh 2.95 3.25 -1.9
Felipe Lopez, Washington 3.13 3.15 -2.6
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
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|
| RC/25 Introduction (8/2) Nelson Lu 07:29:21 |
| | Note for today: as it turned out, there was a data entry error involving KC
last week. Assuming any of you is actually doing tracking, ignore KC's numbers
last week.
The following posts list major league teams' regular position players' RC/25 by
position. Here are a bit of definitions:
RC/25:
A stat created by Bill James to measure how many runs a lineup of 9
of the same individual would score in a game. (The "real" version is RC/27,
since there are 27 outs in a game; however, since certain stats are not readily
available to us during the season, James has an abbreviated version known as
RC/25 to adjust for the absence of those stats. For the formula to RC/27,
please e-mail me. It is also available in Total Baseball and many other
reference manuals.)
A = H + BB - CS
B = 1.125 * 1B + 1.69 * 2B + 3.02 * 3B + 3.73 * HR + .29 * BB
+ .492 * SB - .04 * SO
(Formerly B = TB + .64 * SB + .24 * BB - .03 * K)
C = AB + BB
RC = ((A + (2.4 * C)) * (B + (3 * C)) / (9 * C)) - (.9 * C)
O = AB - H + CS
RC/25 = RC / O * 25
(The reason why HBP, among other stats, is not included is not because I think
that they're not important; it's that the data sources I use do not include
them with the "primary stats," and therefore, adding HBP and other stats would
effectively require twice the work, and the gain, while considerable, was
judged by me to be not worth it in interim reports.)
There are three additional Bill James adjustments that I do not use:
1. He adjusts for BA with runners on base. Originally, the adjustment was
not published; but it has been, in the most recent STATS Major League
Handbook and other sources. I am, however, not incorporating this
change since I have found this change to be arbitrary and also
increasing team-dependence.
2. He also adds additional points for a non-bases empty HR. Again, this
is highly arbitrary -- why not add points for a non-bases loaded
1B, 2B, or 3B? Further, this increases team-dependence as well, which
reduces the usefulness of RC.
3. He then adds up all players' RC on a team and adjusts it in a factor
that is based on whether the team scored more than it is expected or
less. I find that this defeats the point of RC, so I do not use this
adjustment.
PRC/25:
Park-adjusted RC/25. Park adjustment is a topic that I don't know how
to explain well in a paragraph, so I will not attempt to try. However, many
works that explain it are available on the net, and any search engine should
yield a number of useful articles. For these numbers, only this year's park
factors are used.
Value:
An estimate of how many runs a player is above the ever so elusive
"replacement level" (that is, a level of performance at which a player can
easily be found at little or no cost to a team). For these posts, replacement
level is estimated at 50 points of OBP and 50 points of SLG below the average
for each position.
Notes:
1. For these posts, the players who were traded during the middle of the
season have their park factors prorated by AB + BB with the teams.
(This is not mathematically correct, but is the best I can do for now.)
2. Please send to me corrections if I misplaced someone's position.
"SABREmetrics isn't about statistics, it is about the search for new
evidence." - Bill James (thanks, Bill Reich)
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
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Sunday, 27 July 2008
|
| RC/25 for DHes (7/26) Nelson Lu 06:52:10 |
| | Replacement level adjusted to match 1Bs.
RC/25 PRC/25 Value
Milton Bradley, Texas 8.52 8.01 33.6
Manny Ramirez, Boston 7.38 7.10 30.9
ELITE LEVEL? 7.02
Hideki Matsui, New York-A 7.03 6.62 18.5
Jim Thome, Chicago-A 6.66 6.23 21.3
Eric Hinske, Tampa Bay 5.68 6.14 16.8
Aubrey Huff, Baltimore 6.42 6.12 24.3
Jack Cust, Oakland 5.54 5.83 18.8
Jason Kubel, Minnesota 5.17 5.51 13.8
AVERAGE REGULAR DH 5.17
Matt Stairs, Oakland 4.48 4.51 4.8
Garret Anderson, Los Angeles-A 4.34 4.09 1.9
Gary Sheffield, Detroit 4.25 3.94 0.3
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 3.90
Billy Butler, Kansas City 4.00 3.72 -1.4
David Dellucci, Cleveland 3.40 3.60 -2.2
Jose Vidro, Seattle 2.96 3.07 -7.3
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
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|
| RC/25 for Cs (7/26) Nelson Lu 06:49:51 |
| | RC/25 PRC/25 Value
Joe Mauer, Minnesota 7.49 7.97 43.5
Ryan Doumit, Pittsburgh 7.12 7.91 31.7
Russell Martin, Los Angeles-N 6.32 7.11 41.4
Brian McCann, Atlanta 7.45 6.83 35.7
ELITE LEVEL? 6.27
Dioner Navarro, Tampa Bay 5.74 6.20 23.1
Chris Iannetta, Colorado 6.45 5.88 15.8
Geovanny Soto, Chicago-N 6.07 5.50 24.4
Yadier Molina, St. Louis 5.25 5.39 20.0
Gerald Laird, Texas 5.37 5.05 10.3
Jorge Posada, New York-A 5.33 5.01 9.7
Jesus Flores, Washington 4.93 5.00 11.2
Kurt Suzuki, Oakland 4.61 4.84 17.6
Ivan Rodriguez, Detroit 5.03 4.66 13.4
Bengie Molina, San Francisco 4.73 4.61 15.0
Chris Snyder, Arizona 5.04 4.55 9.2
AVERAGE REGULAR C 4.53
Victor Martinez, Cleveland 4.21 4.46 8.1
A. J. Pierzynski, Chicago-A 4.74 4.43 13.2
Brian Schneider, Washington 3.96 4.21 7.8
Rod Barajas, Texas 4.10 4.12 6.9
Jason Kendall, Milwaukee 3.81 3.92 8.4
John Buck, Kansas City 4.21 3.91 6.5
Ramon Hernandez, Baltimore 4.03 3.85 7.1
Jeff Mathis, Los Angeles-A 3.90 3.67 3.5
Matt Treanor, Florida 3.36 3.47 2.4
Paul Bako, Cincinnati 3.35 3.45 2.8
Jason Varitek, Boston 3.46 3.33 2.4
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 3.05
Josh Bard, San Diego 2.58 2.89 -0.7
Carlos Ruiz, Philadelphia 2.81 2.85 -1.4
Brad Ausmus, Houston 3.02 2.84 -1.0
Kenji Johjima, Seattle 2.08 2.16 -7.4
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
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|
| RC/25 for RFs (7/26) Nelson Lu 06:45:10 |
| | RC/25 PRC/25 Value
Xavier Nady, New York-A 7.30 8.11 39.9
J. D. Drew, Boston 7.93 7.64 34.8
Ryan Ludwick, St. Louis 7.24 7.44 36.0
Brian Giles, San Diego 6.43 7.20 36.5
Ryan Church, New York-N 6.62 7.04 19.9
ELITE LEVEL? 6.92
Jermaine Dye, Chicago-A 7.13 6.66 31.4
Nick Markakis, Baltimore 6.65 6.35 31.2
Ryan Sweeney, Oakland 5.87 6.17 17.0
Magglio Ordonez, Detroit 6.56 6.08 23.0
Brad Hawpe, Colorado 6.63 6.05 21.5
Andre Ethier, Los Angeles-N 5.30 5.97 23.6
Corey Hart, Milwaukee 5.39 5.55 22.5
V. Guerrero, Los Angeles-A 5.83 5.48 19.7
Ken Griffey, Cincinnati 5.22 5.36 18.9
Kosuke Fukudome, Chicago-N 5.72 5.18 16.7
AVERAGE REGULAR RF 5.10
Randy Winn, San Francisco 5.15 5.02 15.2
Alex Rios, Toronto 4.94 4.97 16.6
Bobby Abreu, New York-A 5.28 4.96 16.1
Jeremy Hermida, Florida 4.74 4.90 14.3
Gabe Gross, Tampa Bay 4.35 4.64 6.4
Justin Upton, Arizona 4.99 4.50 8.1
Michael Cuddyer, Minnesota 4.21 4.48 6.5
Marlon Byrd, Texas 4.23 3.98 2.4
Geoff Jenkins, Philadelphia 3.87 3.91 2.7
Mark Teahen, Kansas City 4.19 3.89 3.7
Brad Wilkerson, Toronto 3.79 3.85 1.9
Hunter Pence, Houston 4.07 3.83 3.2
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 3.56
Austin Kearns, Washington 3.32 3.36 -1.3
Jeff Francoeur, Atlanta 3.30 3.03 -6.2
Franklin Gutierrez, Cleveland 2.81 2.97 -4.3
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
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|
| RC/25 for CFs (7/26) Nelson Lu 06:41:07 |
| | RC/25 PRC/25 Value
Grady Sizemore, Cleveland 7.10 7.52 47.5
Nate McLouth, Pittsburgh 6.09 6.77 40.2
Josh Hamilton, Texas 7.11 6.68 36.6
ELITE LEVEL? 6.62
Rick Ankiel, St. Louis 6.25 6.42 30.1
Carlos Beltran, New York-N 6.00 6.37 34.4
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles-N 5.57 6.27 31.2
B. J. Upton, Tampa Bay 5.46 5.89 27.7
Jody Gerut, San Diego 5.23 5.86 16.6
Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle 5.44 5.65 27.4
Curtis Granderson, Detroit 5.99 5.55 19.4
David DeJesus, Kansas City 5.80 5.40 19.8
Cody Ross, Florida 5.13 5.30 15.7
Shane Victorino, Philadelphia 5.19 5.26 19.4
Vernon Wells, Toronto 5.21 5.25 13.8
Aaron Rowand, San Francisco 5.23 5.10 17.7
Mike Cameron, Milwaukee 4.84 4.98 12.6
AVERAGE REGULAR CF 4.86
Jim Edmonds, Chicago-N 4.97 4.85 10.7
Torii Hunter, Los Angeles-A 5.05 4.74 14.7
Nick Swisher, Chicago-A 5.06 4.73 14.3
Carlos Gonzalez, Oakland 4.43 4.66 6.4
Jay Bruce, Cincinnati 4.33 4.45 6.6
Adam Jones, Baltimore 4.54 4.33 10.2
Mark Kotsay, Atlanta 4.54 4.16 5.3
Coco Crisp, Boston 4.31 4.15 5.4
Chris B. Young, Arizona 4.17 3.76 4.9
Lastings Milledge, Washington 3.60 3.65 2.7
Melky Cabrera, New York-A 3.77 3.54 1.9
Willy Taveras, Colorado 3.86 3.52 1.5
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 3.37
Carlos Gomez, Minnesota 3.11 3.31 -0.8
Michael Bourn, HOuston 3.15 2.96 -4.4
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
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|
| RC/25 for LFs (7/26) Nelson Lu 06:36:36 |
| | RC/25 PRC/25 Value
Matt Holliday, Colorado 9.21 8.41 42.6
Pat Burrell, Philadelphia 8.03 8.13 44.0
Jason Bay, Pittsburgh 7.31 8.12 47.7
Adam Dunn, Cincinnati 6.92 7.12 33.8
ELITE LEVEL? 6.99
Ryan Braun, Milwaukee 6.59 6.78 36.7
Carlos Lee, Houston 6.79 6.38 29.5
Carlos Quentin, Chicago-A 6.69 6.25 27.6
Johnny Damon, New York-A 6.50 6.12 22.8
Scott Hairston, San Diego 5.14 5.76 17.4
Skip Schumaker, St. Louis 5.57 5.72 20.6
Marcus Thames, Detroit 6.15 5.70 12.3
Raul Ibanez, Seattle 5.36 5.57 22.4
Ben Francisco, Cleveland 5.19 5.50 14.2
Luke Scott, Baltimore 5.73 5.46 16.2
Alfonso Soriano, Chicago-N 6.02 5.46 11.9
Delmon Young, Minnesota 4.94 5.26 17.0
Fred Lewis, San Francisco 5.38 5.25 16.5
AVERAGE REGULAR LF 5.18
Luis Gonzalez, Florida 4.84 5.00 10.4
David Murphy, Texas 5.07 4.77 12.2
Juan Pierre, Los Angeles-N 4.08 4.60 8.0
Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay 4.15 4.48 10.2
Gregor Blanco, Atlanta 4.79 4.39 6.5
Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston 4.35 4.19 5.9
Endy Chavez, New York-N 3.93 4.17 3.5
Shannon Stewart, Toronto 3.80 3.82 1.0
Emil Brown, Oakland 3.63 3.81 1.7
Jose Guillen, Kansas City 4.08 3.79 1.7
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 3.64
Gary Matthews, Los Angeles-A 3.71 3.49 -1.5
Eric Byrnes, Arizona 2.88 2.59 -7.0
Wily Mo Pena, Washington 1.90 1.92 -10.7
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
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|
| RC/25 for SSes (7/26) Nelson Lu 06:31:56 |
| | RC/25 PRC/25 Value
Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles-N 9.84 11.08 28.4
Hanley Ramirez, Florida 7.00 7.23 50.7
Jose Reyes, New York-N 6.32 6.72 47.4
J. J. Hardy, Milwaukee 6.35 6.53 35.1
ELITE LEVEL? 6.04
Jhonny Peralta, Cleveland 5.16 5.47 27.4
Clint Barmes, Colorado 5.88 5.36 14.4
Ryan Theriot, Chicago-N 5.88 5.33 25.7
Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia 5.23 5.29 22.4
Michael Young, Texas 5.39 5.07 25.3
Cristian Guzman, Washington 4.89 4.96 25.0
Jeff Keppinger, Cincinnati 4.72 4.85 14.0
Derek Jeter, New York-A 4.93 4.64 19.1
David Eckstein, Toronto 4.50 4.53 10.3
Stephen Drew, Arizona 4.98 4.49 17.2
Yunel Escobar, Atlanta 4.87 4.46 15.7
AVERAGE REGULAR SS 4.35
Brendan Harris, Minnesota 4.07 4.33 13.4
Julio Lugo, Boston 4.49 4.32 11.0
Orlando Cabrera, Chicago-A 4.50 4.21 15.7
Erick Aybar, Los Angeles-A 4.40 4.14 7.9
Bobby Crosby, Oakland 3.70 3.89 10.7
Jack Wilson, Pittsburgh 3.46 3.85 5.5
Jason Bartlett, Tampa Bay 3.43 3.70 6.6
Edgar Renteria, Detroit 3.72 3.44 5.3
Yuniesky Betancourt, Seattle 3.29 3.42 5.3
Khalil Greene, San Diego 2.74 3.07 1.9
Cesar Izturis, St. Louis 2.89 2.97 0.4
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 2.91
Omar Vizquel, San Francisco 1.85 1.80 -6.0
Freddie Bynum, Baltimore 0.92 0.87 -7.7
Tony Pena, Kansas City 0.49 0.45 -15.4
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
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|
| RC/25 for 3Bs (7/26) Nelson Lu 06:22:07 |
| | RC/25 PRC/25 Value
Chipper Jones, Atlanta 10.83 9.93 50.1
Alex Rodriguez, New York-A 8.35 7.86 35.0
David Wright, New York-N 7.12 7.57 44.3
ELITE LEVEL? 7.06
Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay 6.43 6.94 31.6
Troy Glaus, St. Louis 6.58 6.75 32.7
Ramon Vazquez, Texas 6.62 6.23 15.4
Casey Blake, Los Angeles-N 5.87 6.22 23.6
Edwin Encarnacion, Cincinnati 5.98 6.14 23.6
Jorge Cantu, Florida 5.82 6.01 26.5
Carlos Guillen, Detroit 6.05 5.61 18.6
Mike Lowell, Boston 5.82 5.60 17.6
Kevin Kouzmanoff, San Diego 4.76 5.34 18.8
Aramis Ramirez, Chicago-N 5.83 5.28 17.1
Garrett Atkins, Colorado 5.79 5.28 18.1
AVERAGE REGULAR 3B 5.23
Adrian Beltre, Seattle 5.03 5.23 17.6
Scott Rolen, Toronto 5.17 5.21 12.8
Jose Bautista, Pittsburgh 4.41 4.90 10.8
Mark Reynolds, Arizona 5.42 4.89 12.3
Ty Wigginton, Houston 5.13 4.83 7.7
Blake DeWitt, Los Angeles-N 4.28 4.82 9.6
Joe Crede, Chicago-A 4.93 4.60 8.7
Pedro Feliz, Philadelphia 4.45 4.50 8.4
Ryan Zimmerman, Washington 4.41 4.47 5.2
Chone Figgins, Los Angeles-A 4.66 4.38 5.4
Jose Castillo, San Francisco 4.36 4.25 5.9
Alex Gordon, Kansas City 4.56 4.24 6.5
Jack Hannahan, Oakland 3.98 4.19 4.5
Melvin Mora, Baltimore 4.16 3.97 3.3
Bill Hall, Milwaukee 3.69 3.79 1.1
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 3.67
Mike Lamb, Minnesota 2.74 2.91 -5.1
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
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|
| RC/25 for 2Bs (7/26) Nelson Lu 06:17:29 |
| | RC/25 PRC/25 Value
Ian Kinsler, Texas 7.50 7.05 41.5
Chase Utley, Philadelphia 6.90 6.99 39.8
Dan Uggla, Florida 6.58 6.80 32.4
ELITE LEVEL? 6.75
Alexi Casilla, Minnesota 5.74 6.11 17.1
Dustin Pedroia, Boston 6.26 6.03 29.9
Aaron Miles, St. Louis 5.65 5.80 16.2
Jeff Baker, Colorado 6.29 5.74 13.4
Brian Roberts, Baltimore 6.01 5.73 27.1
Ray Durham, Milwaukee 5.63 5.49 16.0
Orlando Hudson, Arizona 6.09 5.49 20.2
Mark DeRosa, Chicago-N 6.01 5.45 19.2
Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati 5.27 5.42 23.6
Luis Castillo, New York-N 5.03 5.35 14.1
Akinori Iwamura, Tampa Bay 4.84 5.22 21.0
Alexei Ramirez, Chicago-A 5.54 5.18 12.5
Placido Polanco, Detroit 5.48 5.07 16.5
Jose Lopez, Seattle 4.83 5.02 18.3
AVERAGE REGULAR 2B 4.95
Jeff Kent, Los Angeles-N 4.31 4.86 13.2
Jamey Carroll, Cleveland 4.46 4.73 8.7
Kazuo Matsui, Houston 5.01 4.71 10.1
Marco Scutaro, Toronto 4.67 4.70 11.6
Tadahito Iguchi, San Diego 4.16 4.67 8.8
Mark Grudzielanek, Kansas City 5.01 4.66 10.9
Kelly Johnson, Atlanta 5.06 4.64 12.1
Mark Ellis, Oakland 4.33 4.55 12.1
Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee 4.09 4.20 8.0
Maicer Izturis, Los Angeles-A 4.37 4.11 5.3
Robinson Cano, New York-A 3.88 3.65 2.5
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 3.43
Felipe Lopez, Washington 3.35 3.40 -0.3
Freddy Sanchez, Pittsburgh 3.00 3.34 -1.1
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
|
| | Add comment |
|
| RC/25 for 1Bs (7/26) Nelson Lu 06:12:48 |
| | RC/25 PRC/25 Value
Albert Pujos, St. Louis 9.97 10.23 52.9
Lance Berkman, Houston 9.90 9.31 51.5
Justin Morneau, Minnesota 7.22 7.68 40.4
ELITE LEVEL? 7.42
Kevin Youkilis, Boston 7.03 6.76 28.0
Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego 6.03 6.76 33.1
James Loney, Los Angeles-N 5.90 6.64 29.2
Prince Fielder, Milwaukee 6.42 6.61 29.1
Conor Jackson, Arizona 7.33 6.61 24.8
Jason Giambi, New York-A 6.77 6.37 20.2
Dmitri Young, Washington 6.17 6.26 10.2
Mark Teixeira, Atlanta 6.68 6.12 23.8
Adam LaRoche, Pittsburgh 5.50 6.11 22.4
Carlos Delgado, New York-N 5.64 5.99 23.1
Miguel Cabrera, Detroit 6.16 5.70 19.4
Lyle Overbay, Toronto 5.66 5.69 17.7
Derrek Lee, Chicago-N 6.27 5.69 21.1
AVERAGE REGULAR 1B 5.52
Todd Helton, Colorado 5.94 5.42 13.2
Ryan Howard, Philadelphia 5.30 5.37 17.7
Carlos Pena, Tampa Bay 4.96 5.35 13.1
Joey Votto, Cincinnati 5.18 5.33 14.3
Mike Jacobs, Florida 4.61 4.76 8.0
Casey Kotchman, Los Angeles-A 5.03 4.73 8.5
Rich Aurilia, San Francisco 4.78 4.66 5.9
Kevin Millar, Baltimore 4.86 4.63 7.8
Frank Catalanotto, Texas 4.92 4.63 3.9
Richie Sexson, New York-A 4.17 4.32 3.4
Daric Barton, Oakland 3.78 3.97 0.6
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 3.90
Ryan Garko, Cleveland 3.66 3.88 -0.2
Paul Konerko, Chicago-A 3.79 3.54 -3.1
Ross Gload, Kansas City 3.70 3.44 -3.6
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
|
| | Add comment |
|
| RC/25 Introduction (7/26) Nelson Lu 06:04:58 |
| | The following posts list major league teams' regular position players' RC/25 by
position. Here are a bit of definitions:
RC/25:
A stat created by Bill James to measure how many runs a lineup of 9
of the same individual would score in a game. (The "real" version is RC/27,
since there are 27 outs in a game; however, since certain stats are not readily
available to us during the season, James has an abbreviated version known as
RC/25 to adjust for the absence of those stats. For the formula to RC/27,
please e-mail me. It is also available in Total Baseball and many other
reference manuals.)
A = H + BB - CS
B = 1.125 * 1B + 1.69 * 2B + 3.02 * 3B + 3.73 * HR + .29 * BB
+ .492 * SB - .04 * SO
(Formerly B = TB + .64 * SB + .24 * BB - .03 * K)
C = AB + BB
RC = ((A + (2.4 * C)) * (B + (3 * C)) / (9 * C)) - (.9 * C)
O = AB - H + CS
RC/25 = RC / O * 25
(The reason why HBP, among other stats, is not included is not because I think
that they're not important; it's that the data sources I use do not include
them with the "primary stats," and therefore, adding HBP and other stats would
effectively require twice the work, and the gain, while considerable, was
judged by me to be not worth it in interim reports.)
There are three additional Bill James adjustments that I do not use:
1. He adjusts for BA with runners on base. Originally, the adjustment was
not published; but it has been, in the most recent STATS Major League
Handbook and other sources. I am, however, not incorporating this
change since I have found this change to be arbitrary and also
increasing team-dependence.
2. He also adds additional points for a non-bases empty HR. Again, this
is highly arbitrary -- why not add points for a non-bases loaded
1B, 2B, or 3B? Further, this increases team-dependence as well, which
reduces the usefulness of RC.
3. He then adds up all players' RC on a team and adjusts it in a factor
that is based on whether the team scored more than it is expected or
less. I find that this defeats the point of RC, so I do not use this
adjustment.
PRC/25:
Park-adjusted RC/25. Park adjustment is a topic that I don't know how
to explain well in a paragraph, so I will not attempt to try. However, many
works that explain it are available on the net, and any search engine should
yield a number of useful articles. For these numbers, only this year's park
factors are used.
Value:
An estimate of how many runs a player is above the ever so elusive
"replacement level" (that is, a level of performance at which a player can
easily be found at little or no cost to a team). For these posts, replacement
level is estimated at 50 points of OBP and 50 points of SLG below the average
for each position.
Notes:
1. For these posts, the players who were traded during the middle of the
season have their park factors prorated by AB + BB with the teams.
(This is not mathematically correct, but is the best I can do for now.)
2. Please send to me corrections if I misplaced someone's position.
"SABREmetrics isn't about statistics, it is about the search for new
evidence." - Bill James (thanks, Bill Reich)
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
|
| | Add comment |
Sunday, 20 July 2008
|
| RC/25 for DHes (7/19) Nelson Lu 07:25:55 |
| | Replacement level adjusted to match 1Bs.
RC/25 PRC/25 Value
Milton Bradley, Texas 9.06 8.40 34.4
ELITE LEVEL? 6.97
Eric Hinske, Tampa Bay 6.15 6.68 20.0
Hideki Matsui, New York-A 7.03 6.66 19.1
Frank Thomas, Oakland 5.90 6.18 10.4
Jim Thome, Chicago-A 6.51 6.17 19.9
Aubrey Huff, Baltimore 6.50 6.02 21.9
Jason Kubel, Minnesota 5.44 5.79 15.7
David Ortiz, Boston 5.92 5.71 11.7
AVERAGE REGULAR DH 5.14
Matt Stairs, Toronto 4.69 4.64 5.5
Garret Anderson, Los Angeles-A 4.47 4.23 3.7
Billy Butler, Kansas City 3.82 3.88 0.2
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 3.85
David Dellucci, Cleveland 3.57 3.76 -0.7
Gary Sheffield, Detroit 3.99 3.60 -1.6
Jose Vidro, Seattle 2.61 2.71 -9.4
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
|
| | Add comment |
|
| RC/25 for Cs (7/19) Nelson Lu 07:23:33 |
| | RC/25 PRC/25 Value
Ryan Doumit, Pittsburgh 7.48 8.36 30.6
Joe Mauer, Minnesota 7.40 7.87 40.5
Russell Martin, Los Angeles-N 6.44 7.19 40.0
Brian McCann, Atlanta 7.22 6.69 32.5
ELITE LEVEL? 6.24
Chris Iannetta, Colorado 6.67 6.19 16.0
Dioner Navarro, Tampa Bay 5.54 6.02 20.8
Geovanny Soto, Chicago-N 6.65 5.95 26.7
Yadier Molina, St. Louis 5.48 5.61 20.5
Jorge Posada, New York-A 5.48 5.19 10.3
Gerald Laird, Texas 5.37 4.98 10.1
Kurt Suzuki, Oakland 4.49 4.89 17.3
Ivan Rodriguez, Detroit 5.23 4.72 13.4
Jesus Flores, Washington 4.59 4.63 8.4
A. J. Pierzynski, Chicago-A 4.76 4.51 13.4
Chris Snyder, Arizona 5.01 4.51 8.5
AVERAGE REGULAR C 4.50
Rod Barajas, Toronto 4.50 4.46 8.3
Victor Martinez, Cleveland 4.21 4.43 8.0
Bengie Molina, San Francisco 4.44 4.35 12.1
Brian Schneider, Washington 3.99 4.25 7.8
Jason Kendall, Milwaukee 3.93 4.06 9.2
John Buck, Kansas City 3.82 3.87 6.0
Paul Bako, Cincinnati 3.48 3.58 3.6
Matt Treanor, Florida 3.36 3.46 2.4
Ramon Hernandez, Baltimore 3.69 3.42 3.3
Jason Varitek, Boston 3.32 3.20 1.4
Jeff Mathis, Los Angeles-A 3.30 3.13 0.6
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 3.02
Carlos Ruiz, Philadelphia 2.68 2.72 -1.9
Josh Bard, San Diego 2.40 2.69 -1.4
Brad Ausmus, Houston 2.71 2.58 -2.0
Kenji Johjima, Seattle 2.26 2.34 -5.3
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
|
| | Add comment |
|
| RC/25 for RFs (7/19) Nelson Lu 07:19:02 |
| | RC/25 PRC/25 Value
Xavier Nady, Pittsburgh 6.98 7.80 35.4
J. D. Drew, Boston 8.04 7.76 33.8
Ryan Ludwick, St. Louis 7.28 7.44 34.1
Brian Giles, San Diego 6.47 7.25 34.3
Ryan Church, New York-N 6.62 7.04 20.2
ELITE LEVEL? 6.86
Jermaine Dye, Chicago-A 7.10 6.72 30.9
Nick Markakis, Baltimore 6.92 6.40 29.8
Andre Ethier, Los Angeles-N 5.61 6.26 24.8
Magglio Ordonez, Detroit 6.42 5.79 19.8
Corey Hart, Milwaukee 5.50 5.68 22.6
V. Guerrero, Los Angeles-A 5.93 5.61 20.0
Brad Hawpe, Colorado 6.01 5.58 16.6
Randy Winn, San Francisco 5.62 5.50 19.1
Ken Griffey, Cincinnati 4.96 5.11 15.8
Kosuke Fukudome, Chicago-N 5.69 5.10 15.4
AVERAGE REGULAR RF 5.05
Bobby Abreu, New York-A 5.19 4.91 15.1
Alex Rios, Toronto 4.90 4.86 14.4
David Murphy, Texas 5.12 4.75 12.7
Gabe Gross, Tampa Bay 4.40 4.72 7.0
Jeremy Hermida, Florida 4.58 4.71 12.0
Mark Teahen, Kansas City 4.49 4.56 10.8
Justin Upton, Arizona 4.99 4.48 8.3
Michael Cuddyer, Minnesota 4.21 4.48 6.8
Emil Brown, Oakland 3.82 4.16 5.6
Hunter Pence, Houston 4.28 4.06 6.0
Geoff Jenkins, Philadelphia 3.84 3.90 2.8
Brad Wilkerson, Toronto 3.52 3.53 0.1
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 3.52
Jeff Francoeur, Atlanta 3.34 3.09 -4.6
Austin Kearns, Washington 2.93 2.96 -3.4
Franklin Gutierrez, Cleveland 2.37 2.50 -6.9
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
|
| | Add comment |
|
| RC/25 for CFs (7/19) Nelson Lu 07:14:42 |
| | RC/25 PRC/25 Value
Grady Sizemore, Cleveland 6.87 7.23 41.8
Nate McLouth, Pittsburgh 6.09 6.80 38.0
Carlos Beltran, New York-N 6.36 6.76 36.4
Josh Hamilton, Texas 7.19 6.67 35.2
Rick Ankiel, St. Louis 6.48 6.62 30.1
ELITE LEVEL? 6.58
Ryan Sweeney, Oakland 5.61 6.12 16.4
B. J. Upton, Tampa Bay 5.58 6.07 27.7
David DeJesus, Kansas City 5.87 5.96 23.5
Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle 5.73 5.94 28.9
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles-N 5.30 5.92 26.0
Jody Gerut, San Diego 5.13 5.75 14.8
Cody Ross, Florida 5.27 5.43 15.3
Curtis Granderson, Detroit 6.01 5.43 17.1
Mike Cameron, Milwaukee 5.22 5.39 14.0
Aaron Rowand, San Francisco 5.36 5.25 18.3
Vernon Wells, Toronto 5.21 5.16 13.3
Shane Victorino, Philadelphia 5.01 5.08 16.7
AVERAGE REGULAR CF 4.83
Nick Swisher, Chicago-A 4.97 4.70 13.5
Torii Hunter, Los Angeles-A 4.97 4.70 13.9
Jim Edmonds, Chicago-N 4.82 4.68 9.4
Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston 4.70 4.53 11.8
Mark Kotsay, Atlanta 4.68 4.33 6.0
Adam Jones, Baltimore 4.64 4.29 9.4
Lastings Milledge, Washington 3.71 3.74 3.7
Melky Cabrera, New York-A 3.82 3.61 2.7
Chris B. Young, Arizona 3.95 3.55 2.5
Willy Taveras, Colorado 3.69 3.43 0.8
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 3.34
Carlos Gomez, Minnesota 3.13 3.33 -0.1
Michael Bourn, Houston 2.84 2.70 -6.8
Corey Patterson, Cincinnati 2.05 2.12 -8.1
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
|
| | Add comment |
|
| RC/25 for LFs (7/19) Nelson Lu 07:10:35 |
| | RC/25 PRC/25 Value
Jason Bay, Pittsburgh 7.21 8.05 43.0
Pat Burrell, Philadelphia 7.92 8.04 39.7
Matt Holliday, Colorado 8.42 7.82 34.9
ELITE LEVEL? 7.12
Adam Dunn, Cincinnati 6.77 6.98 29.9
Manny Ramirez, Boston 7.12 6.86 29.3
Carlos Lee, Houston 6.75 6.41 27.3
Jack Cust, Oakland 5.77 6.29 23.4
Johnny Damon, New York-A 6.61 6.26 22.2
Ryan Braun, Milwaukee 6.00 6.20 27.2
Carlos Quentin, Chicago-A 6.51 6.16 24.3
Ben Francisco, Cleveland 5.68 5.98 15.5
Skip Schumaker, St. Louis 5.79 5.92 19.9
Scott Hairston, San Diego 5.00 5.59 14.3
Alfonso Soriano, Chicago-N 6.20 5.55 11.2
Raul Ibanez, Seattle 5.32 5.52 19.6
Marcus Thames, Detroit 6.10 5.50 10.3
Freddy Lewis, San Francisco 5.43 5.32 15.6
AVERAGE REGULAR LF 5.28
Luke Scott, Baltimore 5.61 5.19 12.1
Delmon Young, Minnesota 4.84 5.15 14.1
Luis Gonzalez, Florida 4.95 5.10 9.9
Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay 4.42 4.80 12.0
Juan Pierre, Los Angeles-N 4.11 4.58 7.1
Jose Guillen, Kansas City 4.48 4.54 8.8
Brandon Boggs, Texas 4.56 4.23 2.8
Gregor Blanco, Atlanta 4.46 4.13 3.2
Endy Chavez, New York-N 3.71 3.95 1.4
Shannon Stewart, Toronto 3.80 3.76 0.2
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 3.72
Gary Matthews, Los Angeles-A 3.74 3.54 -1.7
Eric Byrnes, Arizona 2.88 2.58 -7.6
Wily Mo Pena, Washington 1.90 1.91 -11.3
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
|
| | Add comment |
|
| RC/25 for SSes (7/19) Nelson Lu 07:06:16 |
| | RC/25 PRC/25 Value
Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles-N 9.84 10.98 28.0
Hanley Ramirez, Florida 7.57 7.79 51.6
Jose Reyes, New York-N 6.13 6.52 42.1
ELITE LEVEL? 6.08
J. J. Hardy, Milwaukee 5.81 6.01 27.6
Jimmy Rollins, Philadelhpia 5.57 5.65 23.4
Jeff Keppinger, Cincinnati 5.24 5.40 15.7
Michael Young, Texas 5.66 5.25 25.4
Cristian Guzman, Washington 5.19 5.23 25.9
Ryan Theriot, Chicago-N 5.79 5.18 22.2
Jhonny Peralta, Cleveland 4.91 5.17 22.8
Clint Barmes, Colorado 5.54 5.15 12.6
Jack Wilson, Pittsburgh 4.17 4.66 8.6
Yunel Escobar, Atlanta 5.03 4.66 16.6
Derek Jeter, New York-A 4.83 4.57 16.7
Miguel Tejada, Houston 4.70 4.46 16.6
Brendan Harris, Minnesota 4.18 4.44 13.4
Bobby Crosby, Oakland 4.04 4.40 14.6
AVERAGE REGULAR SS 4.39
Julio Lugo, Boston 4.49 4.33 10.8
David Eckstein, Toronto 4.34 4.30 8.5
Orlando Cabrera, Chicago-A 4.52 4.28 15.3
Stephen Drew, Arizona 4.61 4.14 12.4
Erick Aybar, Los Angeles-A 4.18 3.96 6.4
Jason Bartlett, Tampa Bay 3.28 3.57 5.2
Yuniesky Betancourt, Seattle 3.43 3.55 6.0
Edgar Renteria, Detroit 3.74 3.38 4.1
Cesar Izturis, St. Louis 3.20 3.27 2.3
Khalil Greene, San Diego 2.79 3.13 2.0
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 2.94
Omar Vizquel, San Francisco 1.11 1.09 -9.6
Freddie Bynum, Baltimore 0.92 0.85 -8.0
Tony Pena, Kansas City 0.55 0.56 -14.7
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
|
| | Add comment |
|
| RC/25 for 2Bs (7/19) Nelson Lu 06:56:00 |
| | RC/25 PRC/25 Value
Chase Utley, Philadelphia 7.35 7.46 42.1
Dan Uggla, Florida 7.18 7.39 35.1
Ian Kinsler, Texas 7.92 7.35 42.5
ELITE LEVEL? 6.71
Alexi Casilla, Minnesota 6.18 6.57 17.9
Dustin Pedroia, Boston 6.13 5.91 27.4
Brian Roberts, Baltimore 6.27 5.80 26.0
Ray Durham, San Francisco 5.90 5.79 18.0
Aaron Miles, St. Louis 5.44 5.56 13.6
Orlando Hudson, Arizona 6.15 5.53 19.8
Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati 5.31 5.47 23.2
Mark DeRosa, Chicago-N 6.07 5.44 18.2
Mark Grudzielanek, Kansas City 5.32 5.40 16.3
Luis Castillo, New York-N 5.03 5.35 14.3
Akinori Iwamura, Tampa Bay 4.79 5.21 19.8
Jose Lopez, Seattle 4.86 5.04 17.7
AVERAGE REGULAR 2B 4.92
Mark Ellis, Oakland 4.51 4.92 15.5
Kelly Johnson, Atlanta 5.29 4.90 13.8
Alexei Ramirez, Chicago-A 5.16 4.89 9.9
Jeff Baker, Colorado 5.09 4.73 7.1
Tadahito Iguchi, San Diego 4.16 4.66 9.0
Kazuo Matsui, Houston 4.86 4.62 8.8
Placido Polanco, Detroit 5.08 4.58 11.4
Jamey Carroll, Cleveland 4.32 4.55 7.2
Jeff Kent, Los Angeles-N 4.04 4.51 9.6
Maicer Izturis, Los Angeles-A 4.72 4.47 7.6
Marco Scutaro, Toronto 4.28 4.23 7.0
Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee 3.76 3.88 4.7
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 3.40
Felipe Lopez, Washington 3.25 3.28 -1.1
Robinson Cano, New York-A 3.40 3.22 -1.9
Freddy Sanchez, Pittsburgh 2.37 2.65 -8.5
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
|
| | Add comment |
|
| RC/25 for 1Bs (7/19) Nelson Lu 06:51:02 |
| | RC/25 PRC/25 Value
Albert Pujols, St. Louis 10.60 10.83 53.3
Lance Berkman, Houston 10.06 9.55 51.1
Justin Morneau, Minnesota 7.35 7.82 39.7
ELITE LEVEL? 7.35
Kevin Youkilis, Boston 7.10 6.85 27.7
Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego 5.96 6.68 30.9
Prince Fielder, Milwaukee 6.20 6.41 25.9
Dmitri Young, Washington 6.17 6.23 10.3
James Loney, Los Angeles-N 5.58 6.22 24.1
Jason Giambi, New York-A 6.45 6.10 17.6
Conor Jackson, Arizona 6.73 6.05 18.9
Derrek Lee, Chicago-N 6.64 5.95 22.7
Mark Teixeira, Atlanta 6.30 5.84 20.1
Adam LaRoche, Pittsburgh 5.00 5.58 16.5
Ryan Howard, Philadelphia 5.48 5.56 19.2
Carlos Delgado, New York-N 5.19 5.52 17.6
Joey Votto, Cincinnati 5.35 5.52 15.5
Todd Helton, Colorado 5.94 5.51 14.5
Lyle Overbay, Toronto 5.56 5.51 15.2
AVERAGE REGULAR 1B 5.46
Carlos Pena, Tampa Bay 4.91 5.33 12.3
Miguel Cabrera, Detroit 5.88 5.31 14.9
Rich Aurilia, San Francisco 4.87 4.77 6.7
Mike Jacobs, Florida 4.58 4.72 7.6
Casey Kotchman, Los Angeles-A 4.87 4.61 7.3
Frank Catalanotto, Texas 4.95 4.60 3.9
Richie Sexson, New York-A 4.23 4.38 4.2
Kevin Millar, Baltimore 4.62 4.28 4.3
Daric Barton, Oakland 3.78 4.12 2.3
Ryan Garko, Cleveland 3.69 3.89 0.3
Paul Konerko, Chicago-A 4.09 3.87 0.1
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 3.85
Ross Gload, Kansas City 3.77 3.83 -0.2
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
|
| | Add comment |
|
| RC/25 Introduction (7/19) Nelson Lu 06:45:49 |
| | The following posts list major league teams' regular position players' RC/25 by
position. Here are a bit of definitions:
RC/25:
A stat created by Bill James to measure how many runs a lineup of 9
of the same individual would score in a game. (The "real" version is RC/27,
since there are 27 outs in a game; however, since certain stats are not readily
available to us during the season, James has an abbreviated version known as
RC/25 to adjust for the absence of those stats. For the formula to RC/27,
please e-mail me. It is also available in Total Baseball and many other
reference manuals.)
A = H + BB - CS
B = 1.125 * 1B + 1.69 * 2B + 3.02 * 3B + 3.73 * HR + .29 * BB
+ .492 * SB - .04 * SO
(Formerly B = TB + .64 * SB + .24 * BB - .03 * K)
C = AB + BB
RC = ((A + (2.4 * C)) * (B + (3 * C)) / (9 * C)) - (.9 * C)
O = AB - H + CS
RC/25 = RC / O * 25
(The reason why HBP, among other stats, is not included is not because I think
that they're not important; it's that the data sources I use do not include
them with the "primary stats," and therefore, adding HBP and other stats would
effectively require twice the work, and the gain, while considerable, was
judged by me to be not worth it in interim reports.)
There are three additional Bill James adjustments that I do not use:
1. He adjusts for BA with runners on base. Originally, the adjustment was
not published; but it has been, in the most recent STATS Major League
Handbook and other sources. I am, however, not incorporating this
change since I have found this change to be arbitrary and also
increasing team-dependence.
2. He also adds additional points for a non-bases empty HR. Again, this
is highly arbitrary -- why not add points for a non-bases loaded
1B, 2B, or 3B? Further, this increases team-dependence as well, which
reduces the usefulness of RC.
3. He then adds up all players' RC on a team and adjusts it in a factor
that is based on whether the team scored more than it is expected or
less. I find that this defeats the point of RC, so I do not use this
adjustment.
PRC/25:
Park-adjusted RC/25. Park adjustment is a topic that I don't know how
to explain well in a paragraph, so I will not attempt to try. However, many
works that explain it are available on the net, and any search engine should
yield a number of useful articles. For these numbers, only this year's park
factors are used.
Value:
An estimate of how many runs a player is above the ever so elusive
"replacement level" (that is, a level of performance at which a player can
easily be found at little or no cost to a team). For these posts, replacement
level is estimated at 50 points of OBP and 50 points of SLG below the average
for each position.
Notes:
1. For these posts, the players who were traded during the middle of the
season have their park factors prorated by AB + BB with the teams.
(This is not mathematically correct, but is the best I can do for now.)
2. Please send to me corrections if I misplaced someone's position.
"SABREmetrics isn't about statistics, it is about the search for new
evidence." - Bill James (thanks, Bill Reich)
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
|
| | Add comment |
Sunday, 13 July 2008
|
| RC/25 for DHes (7/12) Nelson Lu 00:58:42 |
| | Replacement level adjusted to match 1Bs.
RC/25 PRC/25 Value
Milton Bradley, Texas 8.97 8.46 33.3
ELITE LEVEL? 6.95
Hideki Matsui, New York-A 7.03 6.63 18.9
Eric Hinske, Tampa Bay 6.09 6.59 18.9
Frank Thomas, Oakland 5.90 6.19 10.5
Aubrey Huff, Baltimore 6.39 6.18 22.6
Jason Kubel, Minnesota 5.39 5.69 14.5
David Ortiz, Boston 5.92 5.67 11.4
Jim Thome, Chicago-A 6.02 5.58 14.4
AVERAGE REGULAR DH 5.12
Matt Stairs, Toronto 4.84 4.83 6.5
Jose Guillen, Kansas City 4.62 4.66 8.3
Garret Anderson, Los Angeles-A 4.17 3.98 1.2
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 3.85
David Dellucci, Cleveland 3.58 3.77 -0.5
Gary Sheffield, Detroit 4.03 3.60 -1.6
Jose Vidro, Seattle 2.62 2.73 -9.1
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GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
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Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
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