Monday, 17 September 2007
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| RC/25 Introduction (9/15) Nelson Lu 07:27:57 |
| | (This batch is dated yesterday since that's when they were prepared.)
The following posts list major league teams' regular position players' RC/25 by
position. Here are a bit of definitions:
RC/25:
A stat created by Bill James to measure how many runs a lineup of 9
of the same individual would score in a game. (The "real" version is RC/27,
since there are 27 outs in a game; however, since certain stats are not readily
available to us during the season, James has an abbreviated version known as
RC/25 to adjust for the absence of those stats. For the formula to RC/27,
please e-mail me. It is also available in Total Baseball and many other
reference manuals.)
A = H + BB - CS
B = 1.125 * 1B + 1.69 * 2B + 3.02 * 3B + 3.73 * HR + .29 * BB
+ .492 * SB - .04 * SO
(Formerly B = TB + .64 * SB + .24 * BB - .03 * K)
C = AB + BB
RC = ((A + (2.4 * C)) * (B + (3 * C)) / (9 * C)) - (.9 * C)
O = AB - H + CS
RC/25 = RC / O * 25
(The reason why HBP, among other stats, is not included is not because I think
that they're not important; it's that the data sources I use do not include
them with the "primary stats," and therefore, adding HBP and other stats would
effectively require twice the work, and the gain, while considerable, was
judged by me to be not worth it in interim reports.)
There are three additional Bill James adjustments that I do not use:
1. He adjusts for BA with runners on base. Originally, the adjustment was
not published; but it has been, in the most recent STATS Major League
Handbook and other sources. I am, however, not incorporating this
change since I have found this change to be arbitrary and also
increasing team-dependence.
2. He also adds additional points for a non-bases empty HR. Again, this
is highly arbitrary -- why not add points for a non-bases loaded
1B, 2B, or 3B? Further, this increases team-dependence as well, which
reduces the usefulness of RC.
3. He then adds up all players' RC on a team and adjusts it in a factor
that is based on whether the team scored more than it is expected or
less. I find that this defeats the point of RC, so I do not use this
adjustment.
PRC/25:
Park-adjusted RC/25. Park adjustment is a topic that I don't know how
to explain well in a paragraph, so I will not attempt to try. However, many
works that explain it are available on the net, and any search engine should
yield a number of useful articles. For these numbers, only this year's park
factors are used.
Value:
An estimate of how many runs a player is above the ever so elusive
"replacement level" (that is, a level of performance at which a player can
easily be found at little or no cost to a team). For these posts, replacement
level is estimated at 50 points of OBP and 50 points of SLG below the average
for each position.
Notes:
1. For these posts, the players who were traded during the middle of the
season have their park factors prorated by AB + BB with the teams.
(This is not mathematically correct, but is the best I can do for now.)
2. Please send to me corrections if I misplaced someone's position.
"SABREmetrics isn't about statistics, it is about the search for new
evidence." - Bill James (thanks, Bill Reich)
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
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Sunday, 9 September 2007
|
| RC/25 for DHes (9/8) Nelson Lu 10:21:41 |
| | Replacement level not adjusted.
RC/25 PRC/25 Value
David Ortiz, Boston 8.88 8.17 52.6
Jack Cust, Oakland 7.41 8.07 38.3
V. Guerrero, Los Angeles-A 7.74 7.34 44.4
Jim Thome, Chicago-A 7.02 6.79 28.2
Gary Sheffield, Detroit 6.61 6.56 30.6
Frank Thomas, Toronto 6.12 6.11 25.9
Jose Vidro, Seattle 6.06 6.08 25.4
AVERAGE REGULAR DH 5.85
Travis Hafner, Cleveland 6.01 5.62 20.4
Billy Butler, Kansas City 5.75 5.61 10.7
Jonny Gomes, Tampa Bay 4.93 5.29 9.6
Aubrey Huff, Baltimore 5.02 4.95 10.9
Jason Tyner, Minnesota 4.56 4.93 5.9
Sammy Sosa, Texas 4.62 4.71 6.2
Johnny Damon, New York-A 4.95 4.70 7.0
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 4.17
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
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Tuesday, 5 June 2007
|
| College World Series historical question Tony Lima 20:14:33 |
| | When was the last time neither USC nor Stanford was in the
post-season? - Tony (who could look it up but is just plain
lazy)
|
| |  3 answer | Add comment |
|
| Re: TQ Stats? John Poutre 00:46:07 |
| | "mattmaison" <mattmaison@gmail.com> wrote in message
news:1174189268.825234.311600@l77g2000hsb.googlegroups.com...
On Mar 17, 7:07 pm, mark.wol...@gmail.com wrote: Is it just me, or is the new format crap? How do they think that they can make such a huge change after so many people have signed up. Sure, the old interface was pretty bland, but ut had a ton of reports and features. It's all gone now. Maybe it'll be back, but without even any promises at this point.... I don't think this is going to turn out well.... Total crap. The old format was pretty hard to find stuff and not the best interface, so I was hopeful of these changes, but now I've very worried. We've already renewed. Why do websites not get it that simple is better sometimes...
It's a disaster. We renewed (been with them for 5 years and I called and
cancelled and we are moving to Sportsline.
|
| | 10 answers | Add comment |
Saturday, 2 June 2007
|
| Pirates win thriller Guest 01:13:30 |
| | Jamie Ray's single in the eighth scores two as the Pirates rally to win
9-8 over Western Carolina in the regionals Friday....Corey Kemp came out
of his month long slump to hit a 3-run homer in the 7th to pull East
Carolina within one....ECU now awaits the Jacksonville-UNC winner
Saturday at 5 p.m.
www.ecupirates.com
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| | Add comment |
Friday, 1 June 2007
|
| Re: NAIA national tournament: Lewis-Clark State wins, Mills sets HR record Robert Broughton 10:45:47 |
| | Bob Broughton wrote:
Lewis-Clark State needs to win one of two against Spring Arbor for their 15th NAIA title.
They only needed one more game. They won, 9-2.
Beau Mills remains one short of the NAIA home run record of 36.
He got three tonight. That makes 38, and he broke a record set by Mike
Maggers of Mary Hardin-Baylor in 1992.
Here's the official NAIA press release:
http://naia.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/spec-rel/091905aab.html
--
Bob Broughton
http://broughton.ca/
Vancouver, BC, Canada
"There is no rational, moral or economic argument for the continuation
of the manufacture, sale or use of smoking tobacco."
- Robert Starkey, http://smokefreerevolution.org/, 03/18/2007
|
| | Add comment |
|
| Place yer bets (Sweet 16 picks) Guest 01:34:06 |
| | and the weiners are:
Austin: Texas (why is wake there?)
Wichita: Arizona
Chapel Hill: UNC (i am a purple loving homer but no way we beat this
team. hell, i dont even think we can beat WCU on Friday)
Columbia: NC State (mild upset over USC; UNC-Charlotte biggest poser of
the tourney)
Fayettevlle: Arkansas
Columbia (Mo.): Miami
Houston: Rice (this team is like a Timex, cause no matter what you do to
them, they keep coming back for more until they've slapped you around
for 16 runs)
College Station: Louisiana-Lafayette
Nashville: Vanderbilt (although Michigan will be a tough out and if good
Memphis shows up, the scoreboard will be lit up)
Charlottesville: Virginia (by default)
San Diego: San Diego (ditto)
Long Beach: Pepperdine (my upset special)
Tallahassee: Florida State
Myrtle Beach: Clemson (watch out for VCU though)
Tempe: Arizona State
Oxford: Southern Freakin' Mississippi (go CUSA go!)
p.s. i could be wrong.
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Monday, 28 May 2007
|
| We Wuz Hozd!! Your Name Here 20:53:58 |
| | So the EOS post will be early this year. Tech shout out of the
Regionals for the first time sine 1999.
Hope Rice wins it all...how 'bout that, Guvmint Owl?
|
| | Add comment |
|
| Somebody sell me on college baseball Archie Leach 10:56:31 |
| |
I still do'nt get it. It just looks like what SEC'ers, ACC'ers, Big
XII'ers and PAC 10'ers do to get over their feelings of inadequacy
about not offering hockey as a scholarship sport.
|
| | 12 answers | Add comment |
Sunday, 27 May 2007
|
| NAIA national tournament, May 25, 2007 Robert Broughton 18:50:03 |
| | Results from the first day of the NAIA national championship tournament in
Lewiston, ID:
Walsh 3, Saint Thomas 2: The tournament kicks off with a major upset. Walsh
came into the tournament with a 28-28 record against suspect opposition.
Walsh starter Andy Schon pitched a complete game. He scattered nine hits to
keep the Cavaliers close. They entered the eighth inning trailing 2-0, and
scored three runs by loading the bases on Bobcat starter Eddie Machin.
Machin was replaced by Osmar Chaviano, who proceed to walk in a run. He
then struck out a batter, but Jeff Nicholas hit a two-RBI single to win it.
Box score: http://naia.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/stats/2006-2007/01box.html
Play-by-play:
http://naia.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/stats/2006-2007/01pbp.html
Lindenwood 18, Houston Baptist 4: Like Walsh, Houston Baptist is making
their first appearance at this tournament. It will also be HBU's last
appearance for a long time, because they are moving to Division I next
year.
The record will show that the Huskies got mercy-ruled after seven innings.
Lindenwood started this game with four runs in the first inning, and six
runs in the second. They finished it off with five more in the seventh. The
offensive star for the Lions was Chris Bielski, who hit two home runs and a
double, and had seven RBI.
Nate Eisenbeis got the win for the Lions. He went six innings, allowed eight
hits, struck out three.
Box score: http://naia.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/stats/2006-2007/02box.html
Play-by-play:
http://naia.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/stats/2006-2007/02pbp.html
Bellevue 12, Cumberland 10: Last year's runner-up out-hit Bellevue 18-14, in
a game that took four hours to play. Bellevue stranded 16 baserunners,
Cumberland 13.
The Bruins led this all the way. The Bulldogs got a run in the bottom of the
ninth, and they had the winning run at the plate, but Jeremy Wilson popped
up to second base to end it.
Carlos Jackson hit a home run, was 2-3, and had four RBI for the Bruins.
Luis Martinez hit a home run for the Bulldogs.
Box score: http://naia.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/stats/2006-2007/03box.html
Play-by-play:
http://naia.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/stats/2006-2007/03pbp.html
Lewis-Clark State 11, Lee 7: The defending champions took a 5-0 lead in the
second inning, and led the rest of the way, although the Flames got as
close as 5-4 after four innings. Beau Mills got his 34th home run (the NAIA
record is 36), but the big offensive damage was done by Jesse Roehl, who
had six RBI on a home run and a double. He also drew two walks.
Chris Kissock started for the Warriors, but gave way to Brian Parker after
giving up four runs in four innings. Parker got the win.
Jeremy Hutslar went 3-4 with a double for the Flames.
http://naia.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/stats/2006-2007/04box.html
http://naia.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/stats/2006-2007/04pbp.html
Schedule for Saturday (all times PDT):
Houston Baptist vs. Cumberland, 8:30 AM
Saint Thomas vs. Lee, noon
Spring Arbor vs. Walsh, 3 PM
Azusa Pacific vs. Lindenwood, 7 PM
All games webcast by http://koze-sports.com/
All games video webcast (for a fee) by
http://www.watchnaia.com//liveEvents/liveEvents.dbml?db_oem_id=5901
--
Bob Broughton
http://broughton.ca/
Vancouver, BC, Canada
"There is no rational, moral or economic argument for the continuation
of the manufacture, sale or use of smoking tobacco."
- Robert Starkey, http://smokefreerevolution.org/, 03/18/2007
|
| | 2 answer | Add comment |
|
| RC/25 for DHes (5/26) Nelson Lu 01:02:08 |
| | Replacement level adjusted to match 1Bs.
RC/25 PRC/25 Value
Jim Thome, Chicago-A 14.33 14.35 17.8
David Ortiz, Boston 9.30 8.07 19.9
Travis Hafner, Cleveland 7.63 7.77 18.7
Jose Vidro, Seattle 5.81 6.29 12.8
Mike Redmond, Minnesota 5.46 5.92 6.7
Kevin Millar, Baltimore 5.38 5.74 7.1
Sammy Sosa, Texas 5.59 5.70 9.1
Jason Giambi, New York-A 6.26 5.62 7.4
AVERAGE REGULAR DH 5.30
Frank Thomas, Toronto 4.73 5.22 7.3
Mike Piazza, Oakland 4.72 4.89 3.4
Mike Sweeney, Kansas City 4.92 4.57 3.5
Gary Sheffield, Detroit 5.03 4.52 4.2
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 3.74
Rocco Baldelli, Tampa Bay 2.82 2.84 -4.0
Shea Hillenbrand, Los Angeles-A 2.30 2.32 -6.5
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
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|
| RC/25 for Cs (5/26) Nelson Lu 00:59:41 |
| | RC/25 PRC/25 Value
Joe Mauer, Minnesota 8.58 9.30 16.6
Jorge Posada, New York-A 9.43 8.45 20.7
Victor Martinez, Cleveland 7.17 7.31 18.1
John Buck, Kansas City 7.46 6.94 12.1
Kenji Johjima, Seattle 6.24 6.76 13.5
Russell Martin, Los Angeles-N 7.25 6.61 15.7
Brian McCann, Atlanta 5.54 6.16 12.6
Bengie Molina, San Franisco 5.72 5.63 10.8
Mike Napoli, Los Angeles-A 5.35 5.42 7.4
Yadier Molina, St. Louis 5.16 5.32 7.8
Paul Lo Duca, New York-N 5.98 5.29 9.0
Jason Varitek, Boston 5.93 5.15 7.9
Johnny Estrada, Milwaukee 4.88 4.88 7.9
A. J. Pierzynski, Chicago-A 4.76 4.77 7.6
Michael Barrett, Chicago-N 4.51 4.67 7.8
AVERAGE REGULAR C 4.47
Jason Phillips, Toronto 3.96 4.37 3.4
Brian Schneider, Washington 4.02 4.32 5.8
Ramon Hernandez, Baltimore 3.79 4.04 2.7
Gerald Laird, Texas 3.90 3.98 4.0
Brad Ausmus, Houston 3.68 3.95 3.4
Carlos Ruiz, Philadelphia 4.04 3.90 3.1
Josh Bard, San Diego 3.40 3.87 2.8
Chris Snyder, Arizona 3.79 3.69 2.0
Ivan Rodriguez, Detroit 3.92 3.52 2.4
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 3.01
Miguel Olivo, Florida 2.87 2.95 -0.3
Ronny Paulino, Pittsburgh 2.96 2.95 -0.3
David Ross, Cincinnati 2.99 2.70 -1.1
Yorvit Torrealba, Colorado 2.80 2.60 -1.3
Dioner Navarro, Tampa Bay 1.95 1.96 -4.1
Jason Kendall, Oakland 1.12 1.16 -9.7
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
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| RC/25 for RFs (5/26) Nelson Lu 00:54:56 |
| | RC/25 PRC/25 Value
V. Guerrero, Los Angeles-A 9.86 9.98 27.3
Magglio Ordonez, Detroit 10.67 9.58 26.8
Ken Griffey, Cincinnati 8.39 7.57 16.6
Alex Rios, Toronto 6.69 7.38 20.0
Jeff Francoeur, Atlanta 5.81 6.46 15.5
Travis Buck, Oakland 5.92 6.14 7.9
Mark Teahen, Kansas City 6.58 6.12 12.5
Brad Hawpe, Colorado 6.58 6.10 10.8
Trot Nixon, Boston 5.83 5.94 8.7
Shawn Green, New York-N 6.54 5.79 10.6
Randy Winn, San Franciscco 5.88 5.79 10.5
Michael Cuddyer, Minnesota 5.29 5.73 10.5
Nick Markakis, Baltimore 5.22 5.57 11.2
Brian Giles, San Diego 4.51 5.14 7.9
AVERAGE REGULAR RF 5.08
Jose Guillen, Seattle 4.60 4.98 6.5
Cliff Floyd, Chicago-N 4.80 4.97 3.9
Luke Scott, Houston 4.62 4.95 5.2
Shane Victorino, Philadelphia 5.11 4.93 7.2
Scott Spiezio, St. Louis 4.71 4.85 3.0
Xavier Nady, Pittsburgh 4.71 4.69 4.4
Austin Kearns, Washington 4.22 4.54 5.6
Jermaine Dye, Chicago-A 4.28 4.29 3.8
Andre Ethier, Los Angeles-N 4.12 3.76 1.0
Kevin Mench, Milwaukee 3.72 3.72 0.6
Delmon Young, Tampa Bay 3.65 3.66 0.7
J. D. Drew, Boston 4.14 3.59 0.3
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 3.53
Carlos Quentin, Arizona 3.44 3.35 -0.7
Bobby Abreu, New York-A 3.63 3.25 -1.6
Joe Borchard, Florida 3.09 3.18 -1.5
Nelson Cruz, Texas 2.44 2.49 -4.5
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
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| RC/25 for CFs (5/26) Nelson Lu 00:44:48 |
| | RC/25 PRC/25 Value
Hunter Pence, Houston 8.04 8.63 13.5
Nick Swisher, Oakland 7.76 8.04 19.5
Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle 7.25 7.85 22.1
Torii Hunter, Minnesota 6.82 7.39 19.5
Aaron Rowand, Philadelphia 7.34 7.08 18.2
Grady Sizemore, Cleveland 6.57 6.70 17.5
Ryan Church, Washington 5.89 6.34 13.9
Carlos Beltran, New York-N 7.04 6.24 14.9
Curtis Granderson, Detroit 6.76 6.07 14.0
Gary Matthews, Los Angeles-A 5.44 5.51 11.6
Josh Hamilton, Cincinnati 5.82 5.25 6.7
Kenny Lofton, Texas 5.11 5.22 8.4
Vernon Wells, Toronto 4.72 5.21 9.6
Elijah Dukes, Tampa Bay 5.01 5.03 7.2
Johnny Damon, New York-A 5.51 4.94 6.7
Andruw Jones, Atlanta 4.41 4.90 8.2
Chris B. Young, Arizona 5.01 4.88 6.4
AVERAGE REGULAR CF 4.86
David DeJesus, Kansas City 5.05 4.70 8.0
Bill Hall, Milwaukee 4.69 4.69 6.7
Darin Erstad, Chicago-A 4.48 4.49 5.5
Dave Roberts, San Francisco 3.79 3.73 1.1
Mike Cameron, San Diego 3.26 3.72 2.2
Willy Taveras, Colorado 3.99 3.71 1.3
Jacque Jones, Chicago-N 3.44 3.57 0.9
Chris Duffy, Pittsburgh 3.43 3.42 0.3
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 3.36
Alfredo Amezaga, Florida 3.24 3.33 -0.1
Jim Edmonds, St. Louis 3.18 3.28 -0.3
Coco Crisp, Boston 3.77 3.27 -0.4
Juan Pierre, Los Angeles-N 3.50 3.19 -1.0
Corey Patterson, Baltimore 2.96 3.16 -0.9
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
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|
| RC/25 for LFs (5/26) Nelson Lu 00:32:24 |
| | RC/25 PRC/25 Value
Barry Bonds, San Francisco 11.12 10.94 23.7
Matt Diaz, Atlanta 7.23 8.04 11.2
Reggie Willits, Los Angeles-A 7.65 7.75 11.7
Matt Holliday, Colorado 7.78 7.22 17.9
Carlos Lee, Houston 6.51 6.98 16.9
Chris Duncan, St. Louis 6.52 6.72 12.8
Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay 6.66 6.69 15.6
Josh Willingham, Florida 6.32 6.51 13.6
Jose Cruz, San Diego 5.70 6.50 10.6
Geoff Jenkins, Milwaukee 6.32 6.31 9.4
Adam Dunn, Cincinnati 6.81 6.14 12.0
Eric Byrnes, Arizona 6.19 6.04 12.9
Alfonso Soriano, Chicago-N 5.78 5.99 10.9
Pat Burrell, Philadelphia 6.17 5.96 9.6
Hideki Matsui, New York-A 6.43 5.77 7.1
Moises Alou, New York-N 6.47 5.73 6.0
Jason Bay, Pittsburgh 5.70 5.68 10.0
Brad Wilkerson, Texas 5.46 5.58 5.0
Luis Gonzalez, Los Angeles-N 6.08 5.53 8.0
AVERAGE REGULAR LF 5.30
Shannon Stewart, Oakland 4.77 4.94 6.3
Raul Ibanez, Seattle 4.55 4.93 5.2
Manny Ramirez, Boston 5.01 4.34 3.2
Jason Kubel, Minnesota 3.82 4.14 1.6
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 3.72
Craig Monroe, Detroit 4.01 3.60 -0.6
Adam Lind, Toronto 3.14 3.47 -1.0
Jay Gibbons, Baltimore 3.04 3.24 -2.0
David Dellucci, Cleveland 3.11 3.17 -2.0
Rob Mackowiak, Chicago-A 3.17 3.17 -1.7
Emil Brown, Kansas City 3.05 2.85 -3.2
Ryan Langerhans, Washington 0.81 0.88 -8.0
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
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|
| RC/25 for SSes (5/26) Nelson Lu 00:24:22 |
| | RC/25 PRC/25 Value
Hanley Ramirez, Florida 7.94 8.17 25.6
Edgar Renteria, Atlanta 7.20 8.01 24.0
J. J. Hardy, Milwaukee 7.42 7.41 22.8
Carlos Guillen, Detroit 7.96 7.14 18.5
Derek Jeter, New York-A 7.92 7.11 19.2
Jhonny Peralta, Cleveland 6.29 6.40 15.2
Jose Reyes, New York-N 7.16 6.34 17.8
Orlando Cabrera, Los Angeles-A 6.17 6.25 16.0
Miguel Tejada, Baltimore 5.72 6.11 15.2
Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia 5.53 5.33 13.3
Brendan Harris, Tampa Bay 5.31 5.33 8.1
Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles-N 5.36 4.88 7.9
Ryan Theriot, Chicago-N 4.71 4.88 7.1
Yuniesky Betancourt, Seattle 4.38 4.75 6.9
AVERAGE REGULAR SS 4.64
Bobby Crosby, Oakland 4.29 4.45 6.2
Alex Gonzalez, Cincinnati 4.91 4.43 6.2
Jason Bartlett, Minnesota 3.62 3.92 2.9
Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado 4.22 3.92 3.8
Felipe Lopez, Washington 3.60 3.88 4.5
Khalil Greene, San Diego 3.38 3.85 3.9
David Eckstein, St. Louis 3.70 3.81 2.9
Michael Young, Texas 3.70 3.78 3.6
Royce Clayton, Toronto 3.32 3.66 1.5
Stephen Drew, Arizona 3.70 3.60 2.3
Jack Wilson, Pittsburgh 3.46 3.45 1.4
Julio Lugo, Boston 3.94 3.41 1.4
Juan Uribe, Chicago-A 3.30 3.31 0.5
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 3.17
Tony Pena, Kansas City 3.07 2.85 -1.6
Omar Vizquel, San Francisco 2.45 2.41 -3.9
Adam Everett, Houston 1.67 1.79 -6.9
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
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| RC/25 for 3B (5/26) Nelson Lu 00:18:51 |
| | RC/25 PRC/25 Value
Chipper Jones, Atlanta 8.32 9.25 27.4
Miguel Cabrera, Florida 7.72 7.94 22.7
Alex Rodriguez, New York-A 8.67 7.77 23.0
Troy Glaus, Toronto 6.82 7.53 13.2
Chad Tracy, Arizona 7.33 7.14 11.4
Mike Lowell, Boston 8.23 7.14 17.6
Aramis Ramirez, Chicago-N 6.61 6.85 18.1
Hank Blalock, Texas 5.75 5.87 11.3
Casey Blake, Cleveland 5.66 5.76 13.2
David Wright, New York-N 5.95 5.27 11.2
Jose Bautista, Pittsburgh 4.97 4.95 8.2
Melvin Mora, Baltimore 4.54 4.84 9.0
AVERAGE REGULAR 3B 4.61
Morgan Ensberg, Houston 4.25 4.56 5.2
Adrian Beltre, Seattle 4.16 4.51 7.0
Ryan Zimmerman, Washington 4.12 4.44 7.8
Pedro Feliz, San Francisco 4.34 4.27 5.1
Kevin Kouzmanoff, San Diego 3.51 4.01 3.2
Eric Chavez, Oakland 3.86 4.00 4.7
Wilson Betemit, Los Angeles-N 4.15 3.78 1.7
Scott Rolen, St. Louis 3.59 3.70 2.5
Maicer Izturis, Los Angeles-A 3.61 3.66 1.5
Wes Helms, Philadelphia 3.79 3.66 2.0
Nick Punto, Minnesota 3.32 3.60 2.2
Ryan Freel, Cincinnati 3.91 3.53 2.0
Ty Wigginton, Tampa Bay 3.51 3.52 2.2
Brandon Inge, Detroit 3.91 3.51 1.8
Garrett Atkins, Colorado 3.42 3.18 0.2
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 3.14
Joe Crede, Chicago-A 2.83 2.83 -1.4
Alex Gordon, Kansas City 2.62 2.44 -3.6
Tony Graffanino, Milwaukee 1.80 1.80 -4.7
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
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| | Add comment |
|
| RC/25 for 2Bs (5/26) Nelson Lu 00:10:48 |
| | RC/25 PRC/25 Value
Kelly Johnson, Atlanta 6.84 7.61 22.1
B. J. Upton, Tampa Bay 7.08 7.11 16.9
Brian Roberts, Baltimore 6.55 6.99 20.0
Luis Castillo, Minnesota 6.12 6.63 13.0
Jeff Kent, Los Angeles-N 6.68 6.08 13.5
Chase Utley, Philadelphia 6.25 6.04 15.2
Orlando Hudson, Arizona 6.17 6.01 15.0
Aaron Hill, Toronto 5.43 5.99 14.2
Marcus Giles, San Diego 5.06 5.77 13.2
Mark DeRosa, Chicago-N 5.56 5.76 9.2
Damion Easley, New York-N 6.47 5.73 6.1
Dan Uggla, Florida 5.52 5.68 14.3
Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee 5.53 5.52 11.0
Ian Kinsler, Texas 5.31 5.42 10.4
Placido Polanco, Detroit 5.89 5.29 10.3
Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati 5.65 5.10 10.8
Jose Lopez, Seattle 4.38 4.75 6.4
AVERAGE REGULAR 2B 4.72
Ray Durham, San Francisco 4.47 4.40 5.4
Dustin Pedroia, Boston 4.93 4.27 3.3
Freddy Sanchez, Pittsburgh 3.87 3.85 3.0
Ronnie Belliard, Washington 3.56 3.83 2.5
Mark Ellis, Oakland 3.66 3.79 2.7
Craig Biggio, Houston 3.50 3.76 3.0
Mark Grudzielanek, Kansas City 3.99 3.71 2.1
Tadahito Iguchi, Chicago-A 3.60 3.61 1.6
Josh Barfield, Cleveland 3.19 3.25 0.1
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 3.23
Robinson Cano, New York-A 3.55 3.18 -0.2
Adam Kennedy, St. Louis 2.95 3.05 -0.7
Erick Aybar, Los Angeles-A 2.58 2.62 -2.2
Jamey Carroll, Colorado 2.28 2.12 -3.4
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
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| RC/25 for 1Bs (5/26) Nelson Lu 00:06:01 |
| | RC/25 PRC/25 Value
Todd Helton, Colorado 10.21 9.48 23.9
Dan Johnson, Oakland 8.75 9.06 14.1
Derrek Lee, Chicago-N 8.62 8.93 21.4
Carlos Pena, Tampa Bay 7.76 7.79 12.3
Mark Teixeira, Texas 7.39 7.54 19.2
Justin Morneau, Minnesota 6.92 7.50 19.6
Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego 6.37 7.27 19.4
Kevin Youkilis, Boston 8.34 7.24 16.0
Ryan Garko, Cleveland 6.90 7.03 11.6
Dmitri Young, Washington 6.35 6.84 11.9
Prince Fielder, Milwaukee 6.79 6.78 16.3
Lance Berkman, Houston 6.19 6.64 13.9
Albert Pujols, St. Louis 5.98 6.17 12.2
Lyle Overbay, Toronto 5.46 6.03 11.6
Casey Kotchman, Los Angeles-A 5.79 5.87 9.0
Ryan Howard, Philadelphia 5.87 5.67 6.3
Aaron Boone, Florida 5.23 5.38 5.0
Scott Hatteberg, Cincinnati 5.93 5.35 5.2
AVERAGE REGULAR 1B 5.33
Conor Jackson, Arizona 4.90 4.78 3.8
Ross Gload, Kansas City 4.94 4.59 2.4
Scott Thorman, Atlanta 3.88 4.31 2.2
N. Garciaparra, Los Angeles-N 4.48 4.08 1.8
Aubrey Huff, Baltimore 3.70 3.94 1.1
Paul Konerko, Chicago-A 3.85 3.85 0.6
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 3.74
Doug Mientkiewicz, New York-A 4.01 3.60 -0.5
Sean Casey, Detroit 3.88 3.48 -1.1
Adam LaRoche, Pittsburgh 3.31 3.30 -2.2
Rich Aurilia, San Francisco 3.26 3.21 -2.4
Richie Sexson, Seattle 2.93 3.17 -2.8
Carlos Delgado, New York-N 3.32 2.94 -4.3
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
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| RC/25 Introduction (5/26) Nelson Lu 00:00:48 |
| | The following posts list major league teams' regular position players' RC/25 by
position. Here are a bit of definitions:
RC/25:
A stat created by Bill James to measure how many runs a lineup of 9
of the same individual would score in a game. (The "real" version is RC/27,
since there are 27 outs in a game; however, since certain stats are not readily
available to us during the season, James has an abbreviated version known as
RC/25 to adjust for the absence of those stats. For the formula to RC/27,
please e-mail me. It is also available in Total Baseball and many other
reference manuals.)
A = H + BB - CS
B = 1.125 * 1B + 1.69 * 2B + 3.02 * 3B + 3.73 * HR + .29 * BB
+ .492 * SB - .04 * SO
(Formerly B = TB + .64 * SB + .24 * BB - .03 * K)
C = AB + BB
RC = ((A + (2.4 * C)) * (B + (3 * C)) / (9 * C)) - (.9 * C)
O = AB - H + CS
RC/25 = RC / O * 25
There are three additional Bill James adjustments that I do not use:
1. He adjusts for BA with runners on base. Originally, the adjustment was
not published; but it has been, in the most recent STATS Major League
Handbook and other sources. I am, however, not incorporating this
change since I have found this change to be arbitrary and also
increasing team-dependence.
2. He also adds additional points for a non-bases empty HR. Again, this
is highly arbitrary -- why not add points for a non-bases loaded
1B, 2B, or 3B? Further, this increases team-dependence as well, which
reduces the usefulness of RC.
3. He then adds up all players' RC on a team and adjusts it in a factor
that is based on whether the team scored more than it is expected or
less. I find that this defeats the point of RC, so I do not use this
adjustment.
PRC/25:
Park-adjusted RC/25. Park adjustment is a topic that I don't know how
to explain well in a paragraph, so I will not attempt to try. However, many
works that explain it are available on the net, and any search engine should
yield a number of useful articles. For these numbers, only this year's park
factors are used.
Value:
An estimate of how many runs a player is above the ever so elusive
"replacement level" (that is, a level of performance at which a player can
easily be found at little or no cost to a team). For these posts, replacement
level is estimated at 50 points of OBP and 50 points of SLG below the average
for each position.
Notes:
1. For these posts, the players who were traded during the middle of the
season have their park factors prorated by AB + BB with the teams.
(This is not mathematically correct, but is the best I can do for now.)
2. Please send to me corrections if I misplaced someone's position.
"SABREmetrics isn't about statistics, it is about the search for new
evidence." - Bill James (thanks, Bill Reich)
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
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Saturday, 26 May 2007
|
| Too little, Tulane Guest 23:55:05 |
| | East Carolina Pirates roll over the Green Wave 9-4 Saturday to advance
to Sunday's CUSA championship game. The Pirates, now 39-20, will face
either Rice or Memphis. Memphis defeated Rice 2-1 earlier today to force
another game between those two at 4 p.m.
Sunday's championship is set for 1 p.m. at Clark-LeClair Stadium in
Greenville.
www.ecupirates.com
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|
| And Now (Hopefully) The Regionals Your Name Here 21:24:56 |
| | Jackets lose Saturday morning to NC State. Both clubs end the
tournament with 1-2 records.
Totals from www.ramblinwreck.com:
Score by Innings R H E
-------------------------------------------
NC State............ 104 010 101 - 8 14 2
Georgia Tech........ 021 202 000 - 7 11 1
-------------------------------------------
E - Corona(12); Ferguson(7); Turner, R.(5). DP - NC State 1; Georgia
Tech 2.
LOB - NC State 9; Georgia Tech 8. 2B - Corona(13); Jones(7); Mangum(13);
Payne, D.(20). 3B - Jones(2). HR - Haniger, J.(1); Plagman, T.(2). SH -
Gutierrez(4). SB - Poulk(6); Mangum(2); Long, P.(14). CS - Poulk(2).
NC State IP H R ER BB SO AB BF NP
--------------------------------------------------
Jimmy Gillheeney.... 5.0 6 5 5 1 4 20 21 80
Andrew Taylor....... 0.1 1 2 1 1 0 2 3 11
Kyle Rutter......... 0.1 1 0 0 0 0 3 3 8
Eryk McConnell...... 3.1 3 0 0 1 1 14 15 54
Georgia Tech IP H R ER BB SO AB BF NP
--------------------------------------------------
Ryan Turner......... 2.0 7 5 5 0 3 13 13 51
Chris Hicks......... 3.1 3 1 1 2 3 12 14 47
Jared Hyatt......... 1.0 1 1 1 2 1 3 5 27
Danny Payne......... 0.0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 4
Brad Rulon.......... 1.2 1 0 0 1 3 5 6 33
Matt Wieters........ 1.0 2 1 1 0 0 4 5 22
Win - McConnell (3-2). Loss - Wieters, M. (1-4). Save - None.
Inherited runners/scored: Rutter 2/2; McConnell 2/0; Hicks, C. 1/1;
Hyatt, J.1/0; Payne, D. 2/0; Rulon, B. 3/1. Pitches/strikes: Gillheeney
80/52; Taylor 11/5; Rutter 8/6; McConnell 54/34; Turner, R. 51/35;
Hicks, C. 47/31; Hyatt, J. 27/14; Payne, D. 4/0; Rulon, B. 33/22;
Wieters, M. 22/13. Umpires - HP: Mickey Fuqua 1B: Scott Graham 2B:
Jack Cox 3B: Mark Chapman
Start: 10:05 am Time: 3:09 Attendance:
Turner, R. faced 4 batters in the 3rd.
Payne, D. faced 1 batter in the 7th.
Game: 0526ACC
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Friday, 25 May 2007
|
| Pirates steal one from USM Guest 16:10:07 |
| | Harrison Eldridge stole home in the bottom of the 10th thursday night to
lift East Carolina to a 2-1 win over Southern Miss in the second round
of the CUSA tourney in Greenville.
The Pirates (38-20) get the day off Friday and will play the USM-Tulane
winner Saturday at 12:30 in one bracket final. Rice, winners of 20
straight, also has a day off and awaits the winner of UCF-Memphis. That
game begins at 9 a.m. saturday.
tourney roundup: www.ecupirates.com
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| Yuk! Hoos Cruise..! Your Name Here 05:11:56 |
| | After a promising start and a tight game today for 7+ innings, Jackets
do the "El Foldo". NC State Saturday...still need one more "W".
Score by Innings R H E
-------------------------------------------
Virginia............ 000 100 012 - 4 12 0
Georgia Tech........ 000 010 000 - 1 5 1
-------------------------------------------
E - Payne, D.(3). DP - Virginia 2; Georgia Tech 2. LOB - Virginia 8;
Georgia
Tech 9. 2B - Marsh(9); Scaglione(3). HBP - Mitchell; Crancer, W.. SH -
Fisher, M.(6); Murton, L.(2); House, C.(3). SF - Adams(6). SB -
Marsh(13);
Guyer(18). CS - Mitchell(2).
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Thursday, 24 May 2007
|
| What a Wonderful Win Your Name Here 06:09:43 |
| | And a wonderful start to the ACC tournament...Jackets thrash Tarheels
8-4. Great job by Duncan AND the hitters...lets go after UVa!!
From www.beesball.com:
David Duncan turned in eight solid innings on the mound to help Tech to
an 8-4 victory over North Carolina in opening day action at the ACC
Tournament in Jacksonville, Fla.
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| | 1 answer | Add comment |
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