Saturday, 13 October 2007
|
| RC/25 Introduction (Preliminary Final) Nelson Lu 20:08:29 |
| | N.B. Bill James changed the weights of the B component this year (2005). After
some thought, I decided to follow his change, but comments would be
appreciated.
The following posts list major league teams' regular position players' RC/25 by
position. Here are a bit of definitions:
RC/25:
A stat created by Bill James to measure how many runs a lineup of 9
of the same individual would score in a game. (The "real" version is RC/27,
since there are 27 outs in a game; however, since certain stats are not readily
available to us during the season, James has an abbreviated version known as
RC/25 to adjust for the absence of those stats. For the formula to RC/27,
please e-mail me. It is also available in Total Baseball and many other
reference manuals.)
A = H + BB - CS
B = 1.125 * 1B + 1.69 * 2B + 3.02 * 3B + 3.73 * HR + .29 * BB
+ .492 * SB - .04 * SO
(Formerly B = TB + .64 * SB + .24 * BB - .03 * K)
C = AB + BB
RC = ((A + (2.4 * C)) * (B + (3 * C)) / (9 * C)) - (.9 * C)
O = AB - H + CS
RC/25 = RC / O * 25
There are three additional Bill James adjustments that I do not use:
1.He adjusts for BA with runners on base. Originally, the adjustment was
not published; but it has been, in the most recent STATS Major League
Handbook and other sources. I am, however, not incorporating this
change since I have found this change to be arbitrary and also
increasing team-dependence.
2.He also adds additional points for a non-bases empty HR. Again, this
is highly arbitrary -- why not add points for a non-bases loaded
1B, 2B, or 3B? Further, this increases team-dependence as well, which
reduces the usefulness of RC.
3.He then adds up all players' RC on a team and adjusts it in a factor
that is based on whether the team scored more than it is expected or
less. I find that this defeats the point of RC, so I do not use this
adjustment.
PRC/25:
Park-adjusted RC/25. Park adjustment is a topic that I don't know how
to explain well in a paragraph, so I will not attempt to try. However, many
works that explain it are available on the net, and any search engine should
yield a number of useful articles. For these numbers, only this year's park
factors are used.
Value:
An estimate of how many runs a player is above the ever so elusive
"replacement level" (that is, a level of performance at which a player can
easily be found at little or no cost to a team). For these posts, replacement
level is estimated at 50 points of OBP and 50 points of SLG below the average
for each position.
Notes:
1.For these posts, the players who were traded during the middle of the
season have their park factors prorated by AB + BB with the teams.
(This is not mathematically correct, but is the best I can do for now.)
2.Please send to me corrections if I misplaced someone's position.
"SABREmetrics isn't about statistics, it is about the search for new
evidence." - Bill James (thanks, Bill Reich)
===============================================================================
GO ANAHEIM ANGELS!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
|
| |  2 answer | Add comment |
Friday, 5 October 2007
|
| Schedule fever Robert Broughton 20:49:35 |
| | Defending champion Oregon State:
http://www.osubeavers.com/SportSelect.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=4700&KEY=&SPID=1962&SPSID=24961
Noteworthy non-opponents: The Beavers may be the NCAA champion, but if they
don't beat Lewis-Clark State on the field, they can't claim to be the
champion of the Northwest.
The only game listed against Gonzaga is at a neutral site, and no games at
all against U. of Portland are listed. However, U. of Portland's schedule
has them playing the Beavers four times.
--
Bob Broughton
http://broughton.ca/
Vancouver, BC, Canada
"It should be legal for a private maternity ward to permit smoking."
- Chuck Wright, May 22, 2006
|
| | 9 answers | Add comment |
Thursday, 4 October 2007
|
| Details Cameron Laird 17:29:37 |
| | Apparently during The Steroid Follies on 17 March 2005, Jim Bunning
of the House Committee on Government Reform said, "When I played with
Hank Aaron and Willie Mays and Ted Williams, ... they didn't hit more
homers in their late thirties than they did in their late twenties".
Hank Aaron hit 202 homers in the years he was 25-29.
He hit 203 in the years he was 35-39.
Williams also hit more 35-39 than 25-29, but that's mostly due to his
military service.
|
| | 15 answers | Add comment |
Saturday, 29 September 2007
|
| TV question Warren Bell 02:46:19 |
| | Besides the games ESPNU will be showing tomorrow (and the rest of the
weekend), are PPV packages available for the rest of the games?
Thanks in advance.
Warren
|
| | 4 answer | Add comment |
Wednesday, 26 September 2007
|
| The coaching carousel continues Warren Bell 07:26:27 |
| | Gillespie to coach UC Irvine
Former longtime USC coach is expected to take over the Anteaters baseball
program
By Peter Yoon, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
September 25, 2007
UC Irvine is set to hire former USC coach Mike Gillespie to lead its
baseball program, according to sources close to the program.
Gillespie, 67, coached at USC from 1987 to 2006 and took the Trojans to the
College World Series four times, including 1998, when they won the national
title. He retired -- though some have said he was forced out in favor of
son-in-law Chad Kreuter -- with a 763-471-2 record.
He spent last season coaching a Class-A team in the New York Yankees'
organization.
He is replacing Dave Serrano, who in June guided Irvine to its first CWS
appearance but left to take over at Cal State Fullerton, his alma mater,
after George Horton left Fullerton to head the new program at Oregon.
The same sources said Gillespie's top assistant at Irvine will be Pat Shine,
a former UC Irvine and UCLA assistant under John Savage. Shine is the coach
at Division II Cal State L.A., and he is expected to be groomed by Gillespie
to eventually take over the reins of the Irvine program.
http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-irvine25sep25,1,462210.story?coll=la-headlines-sports
|
| | Add comment |
Sunday, 23 September 2007
|
| RC/25 for DHes (9/22) Nelson Lu 12:57:43 |
| | Replacement level not adjusted.
RC/25 PRC/25 Value
David Ortiz, Boston 9.26 8.49 60.4
Jack Cust, Oakland 7.51 8.06 42.1
V. Guerrero, Los Angeles-A 7.74 7.47 49.3
Jim Thome, Chicago-A 7.48 7.20 35.7
Jose Vidro, Seattle 6.26 6.35 30.5
Gary Sheffield, Detroit 6.43 6.28 28.7
Frank Thomas, Toronto 6.23 6.22 29.1
AVERAGE REGULAR DH 5.93
Billy Butler, Kansas City 5.69 5.55 11.1
Travis Hafner, Cleveland 5.81 5.47 18.9
Aubrey Huff, Baltimore 5.38 5.25 15.3
Jonny Gomes, Tampa Bay 4.82 5.13 8.7
Sammy Sosa, Texas 4.75 4.86 7.4
Johnny Damon, New York-A 4.95 4.73 7.1
Jason Tyner, Minnesota 4.34 4.70 3.9
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 4.25
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
|
| | Add comment |
|
| RC/25 for Cs (9/22) Nelson Lu 12:32:22 |
| | RC/25 PRC/25 Value
Jorge Posada, New York-A 8.44 8.06 65.4
Joe Mauer, Minnesota 6.10 6.61 41.0
Victor Martinez, Cleveland 6.71 6.32 50.6
Russell Martin, Los Angeles-N 6.34 6.26 49.4
Josh Bard, San Diego 5.11 5.72 28.1
Brian McCann, Atlanta 5.08 5.28 32.8
Chris Snyder, Arizona 5.25 5.05 18.9
Mike Napoli, Los Angeles-A 5.21 5.03 13.0
Kenji Johjima, Seattle 4.93 5.00 26.7
Gregg Zaun, Toronto 4.87 4.87 18.1
Yadier Molina, St. Louis 4.65 4.79 18.8
Bengie Molina, San Francisco 4.65 4.71 24.2
Jason Varitek, Boston 5.08 4.66 21.3
Carlos Ruiz, Philadelphia 4.68 4.54 16.6
Paul Lo Duca, New York-N 4.32 4.50 18.9
AVERAGE REGULAR C 4.41
Ronny Paulino, Pittsburgh 4.20 4.29 17.2
John Buck, Kansas City 4.37 4.27 13.3
Johnny Estrada, Milwaukee 4.22 4.23 16.0
Brian Schneider, Washington 3.91 4.11 13.8
Ivan Rodriguez, Detroit 4.15 4.05 15.3
Yorvit Torrealba, Colorado 4.32 3.97 10.9
Ramon Hernandez, Baltimore 4.03 3.94 10.1
A. J. Pierzynski, Chicago-A 4.07 3.92 13.1
Brad Ausmus, Houston 3.62 3.82 9.0
Dioner Navarro, Tampa Bay 3.52 3.75 8.7
Michael Barrett, San Diego 3.45 3.43 4.9
Miguel Olivo, Florida 3.36 3.32 4.8
Jason Kendall, Chicago-N 3.18 3.24 3.8
David Ross, Cincinnati 3.27 3.17 2.0
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 2.96
Gerald Laird, Texas 2.89 2.96 -0.1
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
|
| | Add comment |
|
| RC/25 for RFs (9/22) Nelson Lu 11:59:44 |
| | RC/25 PRC/25 Value
Magglio Ordonez, Detroit 9.15 8.95 75.7
Travis Buck, Kansas City 6.33 6.79 24.0
Ken Griffey, Cincinnati 6.67 6.45 40.0
Corey Hart, Milwaukee 6.43 6.43 34.7
Luke Scott, Houston 5.87 6.19 25.4
Alex Rios, Toronto 6.17 6.15 40.1
Brad Hawpe, Colorado 6.62 6.10 31.4
Brian Giles, San Diego 5.36 6.00 27.7
Michael Cuddyer, Minnesota 5.48 5.94 31.4
Jeremy Hermida, Florida 6.01 5.93 23.8
Eric Byrnes, Arizona 6.08 5.85 34.5
Bobby Abreu, New York-A 5.95 5.68 30.6
Nick Markakis, Baltimore 5.77 5.64 31.1
Shawn Green, New York-N 5.37 5.60 21.6
Jose Guillen, Seattle 5.52 5.60 27.9
Xavier Nady, Pittsburgh 5.47 5.59 19.9
Andre Ethier, Los Angeles-N 5.58 5.51 20.6
AVERAGE REGULAR RF 5.44
Jeff Francouer, Atlanta 5.20 5.41 27.2
Reggie Willits, Los Angeles-A 5.60 5.40 18.9
Shane Victorino, Philadelphia 5.49 5.33 18.9
Randy Winn, San Francisco 5.25 5.32 23.9
Cliff Floyd, Chicago-N 5.55 5.21 10.7
Austin Kearns, Washington 4.92 5.17 21.8
Juan Encarnacion, St. Louis 5.00 5.16 10.8
Mark Teahen, Kansas City 5.22 5.10 18.8
Delmon Young, Tampa Bay 4.63 4.92 18.8
J. D. Drew, Boston 5.34 4.89 13.7
Jermaine Dye, Chicago-A 4.97 4.78 13.6
Trot Nixon, Cleveland 4.48 4.22 3.3
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 3.85
Nelson Cruz, Texas 3.25 3.32 -4.7
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
|
| | Add comment |
|
| RC/25 for CFs (9/22) Nelson Lu 11:51:26 |
| | RC/25 PRC/25 Value
B. J. Upton, Tampa Bay 7.12 7.57 51.6
Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle 7.08 7.18 61.3
Hunter Pence, Houston 6.79 7.16 42.0
Carlos Beltran, New York-N 6.58 6.85 49.9
Curtis Granderson, Detroit 6.95 6.80 53.7
Nick Swisher, Oakland 6.32 6.78 49.0
Josh Hamilton, Cincinnati 6.74 6.52 25.5
Aaron Rowand, Philadelphia 6.51 6.32 44.8
Torii Hunter, Minnesota 5.79 6.27 44.9
Marlon Byrd, Texas 5.93 6.06 27.4
Grady Sizemore, Cleveland 6.03 5.68 38.1
Nate McLouth, Pittsburgh 5.36 5.47 18.6
Mike Cameron, San Diego 4.78 5.34 31.1
AVERAGE REGULAR CF 5.07
Willy Taveras, Colorado 5.35 4.93 14.5
Dave Roberts, San Francisco 4.80 4.87 14.8
Gary Matthews, Los Angeles-A 4.84 4.66 17.0
Melky Cabrera, New York-A 4.85 4.64 16.4
Jim Edmonds, St. Louis 4.48 4.63 11.8
David DeJesus, Kansas City 4.65 4.54 17.2
Juan Pierre, Los Angeles-N 4.53 4.48 17.2
Chris B. Young, Arizona 4.59 4.42 14.5
Bill Hall, Milwaukee 4.39 4.39 11.0
Andruw Jones, Atlanta 4.22 4.39 14.5
Coco Crisp, Boston 4.71 4.32 11.8
Alfredo Amezaga, Florida 4.21 4.16 7.3
Jacque Jones, Chicago-N 4.43 4.15 7.8
Vernon Wells, Toronto 4.11 4.10 9.9
Nook Logan, Washington 3.86 4.06 4.8
Corey Patterson, Baltimore 4.11 4.02 6.5
Jerry Owens, Chicago-A 3.75 3.60 0.6
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 3.55
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
|
| | Add comment |
|
| RC/25 for LFs (9/22) Nelson Lu 11:25:30 |
| | RC/25 PRC/25 Value
Barry Bonds, San Francisco 10.34 10.48 63.0
Moises Alou, New York-N 7.91 8.24 32.4
Matt Holliday, Colorado 8.42 7.75 61.1
Pat Burrell, Philadelphia 7.28 7.07 40.7
Matt Stairs, Toronto 7.02 7.01 28.0
Adam Dunn, Cincinnati 7.23 7.00 46.0
Carlos Lee, Houston 6.40 6.75 46.5
Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay 6.05 6.43 39.8
Manny Ramirez, Boston 6.79 6.22 29.2
Hideki Matsui, New York-A 6.40 6.11 31.7
Garret Anderson, Los Angeles-A 6.31 6.08 23.1
Chris Duncan, St. Louis 5.78 5.97 22.0
Raul Ibanez, Seattle 5.84 5.93 30.0
Kenny Lofton, Cleveland 5.85 5.82 24.6
AVERAGE REGULAR LF 5.61
Alfonso Soriano, Chicago-N 5.98 5.60 25.2
Josh Willingham, Florida 5.63 5.55 23.8
Jason Kubel, Minnesota 5.09 5.52 17.4
Luis Gonzalez, Los Angeles-N 5.57 5.50 20.1
Ryan Church, Washington 5.18 5.45 19.3
Shannon Stewart, Oakland 5.07 5.44 22.6
Frank Catalanotto, Toronto 5.17 5.29 12.0
Willie Harris, Atlanta 4.89 5.08 10.8
Geoff Jenkins, Milwaukee 5.02 5.02 11.9
Scott Hairston, San Diego 5.05 5.01 6.7
Jason Bay, Pittsburgh 4.68 4.78 12.6
Jose Cruz, San Diego 4.18 4.68 5.3
Rob Mackowiak, San Diego 4.44 4.39 3.4
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 4.00
Emil Brown, Kansas City 3.79 3.71 -3.1
Jay Payton, Baltimore 3.52 3.44 -6.8
Craig Monroe, Chicago-N 3.01 2.93 -12.8
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
|
| | Add comment |
|
| RC/25 for SSes (9/22) Nelson Lu 11:15:52 |
| | RC/25 PRC/25 Value
Hanley Ramirez, Florida 7.71 7.61 72.4
Edgar Renteria, Atlanta 7.10 7.38 52.1
Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia 6.43 6.25 58.0
Jose Reyes, New York-N 5.78 6.02 52.3
Carlos Guillen, Detroit 6.12 5.98 41.7
Derek Jeter, New York-A 6.11 5.84 43.3
Michael Young, Texas 5.69 5.82 43.4
Miguel Tejada, Baltimore 5.77 5.63 31.9
Brendan Harris, Tampa Bay 5.26 5.59 34.7
Jack Wilson, Pittsburgh 5.39 5.50 29.9
Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado 5.88 5.42 34.9
Mark Loretta, Houston 4.91 5.18 24.6
David Eckstein, St. Louis 5.01 5.17 21.4
J. J. Hardy, Milwaukee 5.06 5.07 29.2
Orlando Cabrera, Los Angeles-A 5.25 5.07 31.4
Khalil Greene, San Diego 4.45 4.98 28.9
Jason Bartlett, Minnesota 4.59 4.98 24.5
Jhonny Peralta, Cleveland 5.22 4.91 26.7
Alex Gonzalez, Cincinnati 5.01 4.84 18.0
AVERAGE REGULAR SS 4.76
Yuniesky Betancourt, Seattle 4.56 4.62 20.6
Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles-N 4.49 4.43 20.1
Ryan Theriot, Chicago-N 4.48 4.20 14.1
Felipe Lopez, Washington 3.69 3.88 11.0
Stephen Drew, Arizona 3.85 3.71 7.0
Bobby Crosby, Oakland 3.13 3.36 1.0
Julio Lugo, Boston 3.63 3.33 1.0
Omar Vizquel, San Francisco 3.28 3.33 0.9
Juan Uribe, Chicago-A 3.42 3.29 0.4
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 3.27
Tony F. Pena, Kansas City 3.05 2.98 -4.2
John McDonald, Toronto 2.92 2.92 -3.3
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
|
| | Add comment |
|
| RC/25 for 3Bs (9/22) Nelson Lu 11:07:23 |
| | RC/25 PRC/25 Value
Chipper Jones, Atlanta 9.33 9.70 73.8
David Wright, New York-N 8.26 8.61 72.3
Alex Rodriguez, New York-A 8.85 8.45 69.8
Miguel Cabrera, Florida 8.20 8.09 62.8
Ryan J. Braun, Milwaukee 7.75 7.76 43.5
Chone Figgins, Los Angeles-A 7.20 6.94 33.9
Aramis Ramirez, Chicago-N 7.26 6.80 37.1
Mike Lowell, Boston 7.06 6.47 37.7
Mike Lamb, Houston 6.12 6.45 21.5
Troy Glaus, Toronto 5.96 5.95 22.6
Garrett Atkins, Colorado 6.16 5.68 27.7
Kevin Kouzmanoff, San Diego 4.99 5.58 20.7
Adrian Beltre, Seattle 5.49 5.57 25.9
AVERAGE REGULAR 3B 5.57
Akinori Iwamura, Tampa Bay 5.23 5.56 21.3
Ryan Zimmerman, Washington 5.18 5.44 27.0
Mark Reynolds, Arizona 5.61 5.40 14.1
Greg Dobbs, Philadelphia 5.53 5.37 12.4
Edwin Encarnacion, Cincinnati 5.55 5.37 18.8
Jose Bautista, Pittsburgh 5.06 5.17 18.0
Melvin Mora, Baltimore 5.07 4.95 12.5
Eric Chavez, Oakland 4.53 4.86 9.3
Scott Rolen, St. Louis 4.58 4.73 8.8
N. Garciaparra, Los Angeles-N 4.64 4.58 7.5
Casey Blake, Cleveland 4.83 4.55 9.8
Josh Fields, Chicago-A 4.73 4.55 6.1
Esteban German, Kansas City 4.61 4.50 5.3
Ramon Vazquez, Texas 4.00 4.09 1.1
Pedro Feliz, San Francisco 3.95 4.00 0.4
Brandon Inge, Detroit 4.07 3.98 0.1
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 3.97
Nick Punto, Minnesota 2.90 3.14 -12.1
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
|
| | Add comment |
|
| RC/25 for 2Bs (9/22) Nelson Lu 10:56:38 |
| | RC/25 PRC/25 Value
Casey Utley, Philadelphia 7.96 7.73 56.4
Placido Polanco, Detroit 6.88 6.72 47.3
Kelly Johnson, Atlanta 6.25 6.49 43.9
Jeff Kent, Los Angeles-N 6.56 6.47 40.8
Brian Roberts, Baltimore 6.37 6.22 46.0
Orlando Hudson, Arizona 6.28 6.04 37.1
Damion Easley, New York-N 5.63 5.86 13.2
Dustin Pedroia, Boston 6.28 5.76 30.3
Ian Kinsler, Texas 5.55 5.67 29.1
Ty Wigginton, Houston 5.31 5.63 31.9
Robinson Cano, New York-A 5.84 5.58 33.8
Freddy Sanchez, Pittsburgh 5.45 5.57 33.9
Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati 5.66 5.48 35.7
Mark DeRosa, Chicago-N 5.84 5.47 26.3
Ronnie Belliard, Washington 5.10 5.36 25.2
Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee 5.34 5.34 21.2
Luis Castillo, New York-N 4.98 5.32 26.4
Mark Ellis, Oakland 4.92 5.28 28.9
Kazuo Matsui, Colorado 5.52 5.08 16.7
AVERAGE REGULAR 2B 5.05
Aaron Hill, Toronto 5.01 5.00 24.7
Tadahito Iguchi, Philadelphia 5.16 4.98 20.0
Dan Uggla, Florida 4.95 4.88 25.0
Maicer Izturis, Los Angeles-A 5.04 4.86 12.5
Aaron Miles, St. Louis 4.65 4.80 13.9
Mark Grudzielanek, Kansas City 4.76 4.65 13.9
Marcus Giles, San Diego 3.39 3.79 3.5
Craig Biggio, Houston 3.41 3.59 1.2
Ray Durham, San Francisco 3.54 3.58 1.0
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 3.51
Jose Lopez, Seattle 3.46 3.51 -0.0
Josh Barfield, Cleveland 2.93 2.76 -9.5
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
|
| | Add comment |
|
| RC/25 for 1Bs (9/22) Nelson Lu 10:50:52 |
| | RC/25 PRC/25 Value
Albert Pujols, St. Louis 8.40 8.67 66.5
Carlos Pena, Tampa Bay 7.94 8.45 57.6
Mark Teixeira, Atlanta 7.83 8.05 50.2
Prince Fielder, Milwaukee 7.69 7.70 55.4
Todd Helton, Colorado 8.12 7.48 47.3
Dmitri Young, Washington 6.97 7.33 38.6
Ryan Howard, Philadelphia 7.41 7.20 44.6
Lance Berkman, Houston 6.71 7.08 45.4
James Loney, Los Angeles-N 7.06 6.98 23.7
Scott Hatteberg, Cincinnati 6.94 6.72 25.4
Derrek Lee, Chicago-N 6.90 6.46 34.5
Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego 5.75 6.43 39.7
Justin Morneau, Minnesota 5.86 6.35 35.7
AVERAGE REGULAR 1B 5.83
Kevin Youkilis, Boston 6.29 5.77 23.4
Casey Kotchman, Los Angeles-A 5.95 5.74 18.8
Paul Konerko, Chicago-A 5.87 5.65 23.1
Adam LaRoche, Pittsburgh 5.51 5.62 22.8
Conor Jackson, Arizona 5.82 5.60 16.6
Dan Johnson, Oakland 5.09 5.46 16.0
Ryan Garko, Cleveland 5.69 5.36 15.5
Mike Jacobs, Florida 5.40 5.33 13.3
Kevin Millar, Baltimore 5.34 5.21 14.0
Carlos Delgado, New York-N 4.95 5.16 14.9
Ryan Klesko, San Francisco 5.00 5.07 9.3
Brad Wilkerson, Texas 4.90 5.01 8.6
Sean Casey, Detroit 4.97 4.86 8.5
Alex Gordon, Kansas City 4.42 4.32 2.3
Lyle Overbay, Toronto 4.28 4.27 1.3
Andy Phillips, New York-A 4.43 4.23 0.3
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 4.17
Richie Sexson, Seattle 3.72 3.77 -5.5
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
|
| | Add comment |
|
| RC/25 Introduction (9/22) Nelson Lu 10:46:15 |
| | (Note: there will be no reports next Saturday; I'll wait until the actual end
of season to do the next batch of reports, probably on the following Tuesday.)
The following posts list major league teams' regular position players' RC/25 by
position. Here are a bit of definitions:
RC/25:
A stat created by Bill James to measure how many runs a lineup of 9
of the same individual would score in a game. (The "real" version is RC/27,
since there are 27 outs in a game; however, since certain stats are not readily
available to us during the season, James has an abbreviated version known as
RC/25 to adjust for the absence of those stats. For the formula to RC/27,
please e-mail me. It is also available in Total Baseball and many other
reference manuals.)
A = H + BB - CS
B = 1.125 * 1B + 1.69 * 2B + 3.02 * 3B + 3.73 * HR + .29 * BB
+ .492 * SB - .04 * SO
(Formerly B = TB + .64 * SB + .24 * BB - .03 * K)
C = AB + BB
RC = ((A + (2.4 * C)) * (B + (3 * C)) / (9 * C)) - (.9 * C)
O = AB - H + CS
RC/25 = RC / O * 25
(The reason why HBP, among other stats, is not included is not because I think
that they're not important; it's that the data sources I use do not include
them with the "primary stats," and therefore, adding HBP and other stats would
effectively require twice the work, and the gain, while considerable, was
judged by me to be not worth it in interim reports.)
There are three additional Bill James adjustments that I do not use:
1. He adjusts for BA with runners on base. Originally, the adjustment was
not published; but it has been, in the most recent STATS Major League
Handbook and other sources. I am, however, not incorporating this
change since I have found this change to be arbitrary and also
increasing team-dependence.
2. He also adds additional points for a non-bases empty HR. Again, this
is highly arbitrary -- why not add points for a non-bases loaded
1B, 2B, or 3B? Further, this increases team-dependence as well, which
reduces the usefulness of RC.
3. He then adds up all players' RC on a team and adjusts it in a factor
that is based on whether the team scored more than it is expected or
less. I find that this defeats the point of RC, so I do not use this
adjustment.
PRC/25:
Park-adjusted RC/25. Park adjustment is a topic that I don't know how
to explain well in a paragraph, so I will not attempt to try. However, many
works that explain it are available on the net, and any search engine should
yield a number of useful articles. For these numbers, only this year's park
factors are used.
Value:
An estimate of how many runs a player is above the ever so elusive
"replacement level" (that is, a level of performance at which a player can
easily be found at little or no cost to a team). For these posts, replacement
level is estimated at 50 points of OBP and 50 points of SLG below the average
for each position.
Notes:
1. For these posts, the players who were traded during the middle of the
season have their park factors prorated by AB + BB with the teams.
(This is not mathematically correct, but is the best I can do for now.)
2. Please send to me corrections if I misplaced someone's position.
"SABREmetrics isn't about statistics, it is about the search for new
evidence." - Bill James (thanks, Bill Reich)
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
|
| | Add comment |
Monday, 17 September 2007
|
| RC/25 for DHes (9/15) Nelson Lu 08:12:22 |
| | Replacement level not adjusted.
RC/25 PRC/25 Value
David Ortiz, Boston 9.19 8.42 56.8
Jack Cust, Oakland 7.30 7.92 38.6
V. Guerrero, Los Angeles-A 7.90 7.59 48.5
Jim Thome, Chicago-A 7.33 7.07 32.5
Jose Vidro, Seattle 6.39 6.47 30.8
Gary Sheffield, Detroit 6.60 6.47 29.9
AVERAGE REGULAR DH 5.92
Frank Thomas, Toronto 5.88 5.89 23.6
Travis Hafner, Cleveland 5.92 5.55 19.3
Billy Butler, Kansas City 5.66 5.52 10.1
Aubrey Huff, Baltimore 5.20 5.08 12.3
Johnny Damon, New York-A 5.25 4.99 10.6
Jonny Gomes, Tampa Bay 4.62 4.96 6.7
Sammy Sosa, Texas 4.85 4.95 8.4
Jason Tyner, Minnesota 4.40 4.75 4.2
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 4.24
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
|
| | Add comment |
|
| RC/25 for Cs (9/15) Nelson Lu 08:09:59 |
| | RC/25 PRC/25 Value
Jorge Posada, New York-A 8.69 8.26 64.9
Joe Mauer, Minnesota 6.24 6.73 40.0
Victor Martinez, Cleveland 6.81 6.39 49.3
Russell Martin, Los Angeles-N 6.22 6.05 44.8
Josh Bard, San Diego 4.76 5.26 23.0
Brian McCann, Atlanta 4.99 5.19 30.4
Yadier Molina, St. Louis 4.91 5.06 20.0
Bengie Molina, San Francisco 4.81 4.89 25.5
Mike Napoli, Los Angeles-A 5.01 4.82 11.4
Jason Varitek, Boston 5.25 4.81 21.8
Kenji Johjima, Seattle 4.74 4.81 23.8
Chris Snyder, Arizona 4.80 4.59 14.4
Gregg Zaun, Toronto 4.56 4.57 14.6
John Buck, Kansas City 4.62 4.51 14.9
Carlos Ruiz, Philadelphia 4.64 4.48 15.0
AVERAGE REGULAR C 4.41
Johnny Estrada, Milwaukee 4.31 4.35 16.9
Ivan Rodriguez, Detroit 4.37 4.28 17.6
Paul Lo Duca, New York-N 4.12 4.25 15.0
Ronny Paulino, Pittsburgh 4.16 4.21 15.5
A. J. Pierzynski, Chicago-A 4.32 4.17 15.8
Brian Schneider, Washington 3.86 4.12 13.4
Brad Ausmus, Houston 3.63 3.84 9.1
Ramon Hernandez, Baltimore 3.93 3.84 8.7
Yorvit Torrealba, Colorado 3.95 3.69 7.8
Dioner Navarro, Tampa Bay 3.43 3.67 7.7
Michael Barrett, San Diego 3.65 3.64 6.7
Jason Kendall, Chicago-N 3.19 3.29 4.6
Miguel Olivo, Florida 3.25 3.21 3.3
David Ross, Cincinnati 3.30 3.20 2.2
Gerald Laird, Texas 2.96 3.01 0.7
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 2.96
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
|
| | Add comment |
|
| RC/25 for RFs (9/15) Nelson Lu 08:05:39 |
| | RC/25 PRC/25 Value
Magglio Ordonez, Detroit 9.38 9.19 76.0
Travis Buck, Oakland 6.33 6.87 24.9
Ken Griffey, Cincinnati 7.04 6.83 43.7
Corey Hart, Milwaukee 6.41 6.46 33.5
Alex Rios, Toronto 6.32 6.33 41.4
Luke Scott, Houston 5.97 6.32 26.6
Brad Hawpe, Colorado 6.68 6.24 32.2
Brian Giles, San Diego 5.56 6.14 28.0
Jeremy Hermida, Florida 6.21 6.13 24.3
Nick Markakis, Baltimore 5.96 5.82 32.8
Bobby Abreu, New York-A 6.07 5.77 30.9
Michael Cuddyer, Minnesota 5.30 5.72 27.4
Jeff Francoeur, Atlanta 5.39 5.60 29.5
Xavier Nady, Pittsburgh 5.52 5.59 18.9
Jose Guillen, Seattle 5.50 5.57 26.6
AVERAGE REGULAR RF 5.41
Cliff Floyd, Chicago-N 5.68 5.39 11.8
Shane Victorino, Philadelphia 5.56 5.38 19.5
Randy Winn, San Francisco 5.27 5.36 23.8
Andre Ethier, Los Angeles-N 5.50 5.35 18.1
Reggie Willits, Los Angeles-A 5.50 5.29 17.1
Mark Teahen, Kansas City 5.42 5.28 20.7
Austin Kearns, Washington 4.86 5.17 21.2
Juan Encarnacion, St. Louis 5.00 5.16 11.0
Delmon Young, Tampa Bay 4.70 5.04 20.4
Shawn Green, New York-N 4.87 5.02 14.5
J. D. Drew, Boston 5.40 4.95 14.0
Jermaine Dye, Chicago-A 5.04 4.86 14.4
Trot Nixon, Cleveland 4.48 4.20 3.3
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 3.82
Nelson Cruz, Texas 3.03 3.08 -6.4
Carlos Quentin, Arizona 2.92 2.79 -7.2
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
|
| | Add comment |
|
| RC/25 for CFs (9/15) Nelson Lu 08:01:28 |
| | RC/25 PRC/25 Value
B. J. Upton, Tampa Bay 7.25 7.77 51.3
Hunter Pence, Houston 6.94 7.35 41.7
Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle 7.14 7.23 58.9
Carlos Beltran, New York-N 6.71 6.93 47.5
Curtis Granderson, Detroit 7.01 6.87 52.7
Nick Swisher, Oakland 6.28 6.82 48.4
Josh Hamilton, Cincinnati 6.74 6.53 25.4
Torii Hunter, Minnesota 5.90 6.36 44.0
Aaron Rowand, Philadelphia 6.45 6.24 40.6
Marlon Byrd, Texas 5.87 5.98 24.6
Grady Sizemore, Cleveland 6.22 5.84 38.8
Nate McLouth, Pittsburgh 5.19 5.25 15.7
Mike Cameron, San Diego 4.74 5.23 27.7
AVERAGE REGULAR CF 5.10
Willy Taveras, Colorado 5.35 5.00 15.0
Melky Cabrera, New York-A 5.09 4.84 18.3
Dave Roberts, San Francisco 4.65 4.73 12.5
Gary Matthews, Los Angeles-A 4.84 4.65 16.4
David DeJesus, Kansas City 4.74 4.62 17.4
Jim Edmonds, St. Louis 4.47 4.62 11.0
Coco Crisp, Boston 4.86 4.46 13.0
Andruw Jones, Atlanta 4.28 4.44 14.4
Bill Hall, Milwaukee 4.38 4.41 10.8
Juan Pierre, Los Angeles-N 4.50 4.39 14.4
Chris B. Young, Arizona 4.55 4.34 12.3
Jacque Jones, Chicago-N 4.58 4.34 9.4
Vernon Wells, Toronto 4.16 4.16 10.3
Nook Logan, Washington 3.89 4.15 5.1
Alfredo Amezaga, Florida 4.15 4.10 6.1
Corey Patterson, Baltimore 4.11 4.02 6.2
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 3.57
Jerry Owens, Chicago-N 3.40 3.28 -2.7
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
|
| | Add comment |
|
| RC/25 for LFs (9/15) Nelson Lu 07:55:12 |
| | RC/25 PRC/25 Value
Barry Bonds, San Francisco 10.28 10.46 62.6
Moises Alou, New York-N 7.49 7.73 26.3
Matt Stairs, Toronto 7.60 7.61 30.6
Matt Holliday, Colorado 8.02 7.49 54.5
Pat Burrell, Philadelphia 7.56 7.31 41.0
Adam Dunn, Cincinnati 7.25 7.03 44.3
Carlos Lee, Houston 6.26 6.63 42.3
Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay 5.95 6.38 38.2
Manny Ramirez, Boston 6.79 6.22 29.0
Hideki Matsui, New York-A 6.47 6.15 30.7
Eric Byrnes, Arizona 6.38 6.10 34.1
Chris Duncan, St. Louis 5.82 6.00 22.1
Garret Anderson, Los Angeles-A 6.13 5.89 19.8
Kenny Lofton, Cleveland 5.83 5.79 23.2
Shannon Stewart, Oakland 5.31 5.76 26.2
Josh Willingham, Florida 5.77 5.70 25.0
AVERAGE REGULAR LF 5.63
Raul Ibanez, Seattle 5.53 5.61 23.7
Frank Catalanotto, Texas 5.44 5.55 13.3
Jason Kubel, Minnesota 5.04 5.43 15.5
Luis Gonzalez, Los Angeles-N 5.53 5.38 17.4
Alfonso Soriano, Chicago-N 5.64 5.35 20.1
Ryan Church, Washington 4.98 5.30 16.8
Willie Harris, Atlanta 5.05 5.24 12.0
Geoff Jenkins, Milwaukee 4.95 4.98 10.9
Jason Bay, Pittsburgh 4.80 4.85 12.9
Jose Cruz, San Diego 4.18 4.61 4.7
Rob Mackowiak, San Diego 4.51 4.45 3.8
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 4.02
Emil Brown, Kansas City 3.70 3.61 -4.1
Jay Payton, Baltimore 3.55 3.46 -6.6
Craig Monroe, Chicago-N 3.22 3.15 -9.8
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
|
| | Add comment |
|
| RC/25 for SSes (9/15) Nelson Lu 07:50:39 |
| | RC/25 PRC/25 Value
Hanley Ramirez, Florida 7.73 7.63 69.9
Edgar Renteria, Atlanta 7.09 7.36 49.5
Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia 6.42 6.20 54.9
Carlos Guillen, Detroit 6.21 6.09 41.9
Jose Reyes, New York-N 5.85 6.03 50.6
Miguel Tejada, Baltimore 5.95 5.81 32.9
Michael Young, Texas 5.66 5.76 41.1
Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado 5.96 5.57 36.0
Derek Jeter, New York-A 5.85 5.56 37.8
Brendan Harris, Tampa Bay 5.08 5.44 32.4
Jack Wilson, Pittsburgh 5.09 5.15 25.2
Mark Loretta, Houston 4.82 5.10 23.4
Jason Bartlett, Minnesota 4.72 5.09 25.5
Orlando Cabrera, Los Angeles-A 5.29 5.08 30.8
J. J. Hardy, Milwaukee 5.00 5.03 28.2
David Eckstein, St. Louis 4.84 4.99 19.2
Khalil Greene, San Diego 4.49 4.95 27.7
Alex Gonzalez, Cincinnati 5.01 4.86 18.4
AVERAGE REGULAR SS 4.71
Yuniesky Betancourt, Seattle 4.51 4.57 19.5
Jhonny Peralta, Cleveland 4.85 4.55 20.8
Ryan Theriot, Chicago-N 4.55 4.31 15.6
Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles-N 4.42 4.30 18.1
Felipe Lopez, Washington 3.61 3.84 10.6
Stephen Drew, Arizona 3.86 3.69 7.0
Bobby Crosby, Oakland 3.13 3.40 1.8
Julio Lugo, Boston 3.64 3.33 1.7
Juan Uribe, Chicago-A 3.44 3.32 1.2
Omar Vizquel, San Francisco 3.19 3.25 0.3
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 3.23
Tony F. Pena, Kansas City 3.06 2.98 -3.5
John McDonald, Toronto 2.83 2.84 -3.6
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
|
| | Add comment |
|
| RC/25 for 3Bs (9/15) Nelson Lu 07:44:54 |
| | RC/25 PRC/25 Value
Chipper Jones, Atlanta 9.07 9.42 67.6
Alex Rodriguez, New York-A 9.36 8.89 73.0
David Wright, New York-N 8.27 8.53 68.1
Ryan J. Braun, Milwaukee 7.96 8.02 44.2
Miguel Cabrera, Florida 8.01 7.92 57.9
Chone Figgins, Los Angeles-A 7.21 6.93 32.9
Aramis Ramirez, Chicago-N 7.23 6.86 36.4
Mike Lowell, Boston 7.01 6.43 35.7
Mike Lamb, Houston 5.93 6.28 20.0
Troy Glaus, Toronto 5.96 5.97 23.2
Adrian Beltre, Seattle 5.61 5.68 26.7
Akinori Iwamura, Tampa Bay 5.29 5.67 22.2
Garrett Atkins, Colorado 6.05 5.65 26.7
Ryan Zimmerman, Washington 5.23 5.57 28.6
AVERAGE REGULAR 3B 5.53
Greg Dobbs, Philadelphia 5.63 5.45 12.5
Jose Bautista, Pittsburgh 5.28 5.34 20.1
Kevin Kouzmanoff, San Diego 4.80 5.30 16.6
Edwin Encarnacion, Cincinnati 5.24 5.08 14.8
Mark Reynolds, Arizona 5.27 5.03 10.2
Melvin Mora, Baltimore 5.09 4.97 12.6
Eric Chavez, Oakland 4.53 4.92 10.3
Scott Rolen, St. Louis 4.58 4.73 9.2
Esteban German, Kansas City 4.78 4.66 7.0
Casey Blake, Cleveland 4.80 4.50 9.2
N. Garciaparra, Los Angeles-N 4.57 4.45 6.1
Ramon Vazquez, Texas 4.22 4.31 3.1
Pedro Feliz, San Francisco 4.02 4.09 2.3
Brandon Inge, Detroit 4.13 4.05 1.7
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 3.94
Josh Fields, Chicago-A 3.93 3.79 -1.4
Nick Punto, Minnesota 2.54 2.74 -16.9
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
|
| | Add comment |
|
| RC/25 for 2Bs (9/15) Nelson Lu 07:39:48 |
| | RC/25 PRC/25 Value
Chase Utley, Philadelphia 8.18 7.91 54.2
Placido Polanco, Detroit 6.81 6.68 44.2
Kelly Johnson, Atlanta 6.36 6.60 43.1
Jeff Kent, Los Angeles-N 6.44 6.27 36.4
Brian Roberts, Baltimore 6.34 6.20 43.4
Dustin Pedroia, Boston 6.62 6.07 31.9
Ian Kinsler, Texas 5.89 6.00 31.3
Orlando Hudson, Arizona 6.28 6.00 36.2
Freddy Sanchez, Pittsburgh 5.77 5.84 35.8
Damion Easley, New York-N 5.63 5.81 12.7
Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati 5.73 5.56 34.8
Ty Wigginton, Houston 5.18 5.54 28.9
Mark Ellis, Oakland 4.99 5.42 29.4
Robinson Cano, New York-A 5.68 5.40 29.4
Ronnie Belliard, Washington 5.01 5.34 23.2
Luis Castillo, New York-N 4.97 5.30 24.3
Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee 5.24 5.28 18.9
Mark DeRosa, Chicago-N 5.48 5.19 21.4
Maicer Izturis, Los Angeles-A 5.32 5.12 13.5
Kazuo Matsui, Colorado 5.45 5.10 16.3
AVERAGE REGULAR 2B 5.08
Dan Uggla, Florida 5.04 4.98 25.1
Tadahito Iguchi, Philadelphia 5.15 4.97 19.5
Mark Grudzielanek, Kansas City 5.08 4.95 16.5
Aaron Hill, Toronto 4.87 4.88 21.4
Aaron Miles, St. Louis 4.71 4.86 13.4
Craig Biggio, Houston 3.56 3.76 3.3
Marcus Giles, San Diego 3.31 3.66 1.5
Ray Durham, San Francisco 3.56 3.62 1.2
Jose Lopez, Seattle 3.51 3.56 0.2
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 3.54
Josh Barfield, Cleveland 2.97 2.79 -9.5
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
|
| | Add comment |
|
| RC/25 for 1Bs (9/15) Nelson Lu 07:34:03 |
| | RC/25 PRC/25 Value
Albert Pujols, St. Louis 8.37 8.63 64.5
Carlos Pena, Tampa Bay 7.98 8.56 57.1
Mark Teixeira, Atlanta 7.73 7.93 46.5
Prince Fielder, Milwaukee 7.70 7.76 54.1
Todd Helton, Colorado 7.99 7.47 45.1
Dmitri Young, Washington 6.94 7.39 39.7
Lance Berkman, Houston 6.74 7.13 44.6
James Loney, Los Angeles-N 7.21 7.02 22.1
Ryan Howard, Philadelphia 6.97 6.74 36.5
Scott Hatteberg, Cincinnati 6.94 6.73 25.7
Justin Morneau, Minnesota 6.12 6.60 38.3
Derrek Lee, Chicago-N 6.88 6.53 34.0
Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego 5.57 6.15 33.6
Paul Konerko, Chicago-A 6.12 5.91 26.0
AVERAGE REGULAR 1B 5.80
Kevin Youkilis, Boston 6.29 5.76 23.3
Adam LaRoche, Pittsburgh 5.57 5.64 22.4
Casey Kotchman, Los Angeles-A 5.76 5.53 16.2
Conor Jackson, Arizona 5.76 5.51 15.4
Kevin Millar, Baltimore 5.59 5.46 16.3
Ryan Garko, Cleveland 5.67 5.32 14.6
Dan Johnson, Oakland 4.83 5.24 12.9
Ryan Klesko, San Francisco 5.11 5.20 10.6
Carlos Delgado, New York-N 4.94 5.10 14.2
Mike Jacobs, Florida 5.14 5.08 10.1
Brad Wilkerson, Texas 4.96 5.06 8.9
Sean Casey, Detroit 4.81 4.71 6.9
Alex Gordon, Kansas City 4.44 4.33 2.7
Lyle Overbay, Toronto 4.30 4.31 2.0
Andy Phillips, New York-A 4.43 4.21 0.3
REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 4.15
Richie Sexson, Seattle 3.72 3.77 -5.3
===============================================================================
GO (LOS ANGELES) ANGELS OF ANAHEIM!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu (nlu@cs.stanford.edu)
|
| | Add comment |
|
